Post a Comment Print Share on Facebook

reads.

Carl Johan von Seth: Wet grog on the euro's 20 birthday-girl

The european central bank the ECB is celebrating two decades with the common currency. But the party atmosphere has so far not come to Frankfurt.

instead, played the financial markets, especially after Thursday's announcement. President Mario Draghi said then that the first increase of the repo rate since 2011 – is supposed to be implemented in december – are now postponed with regard to the recent weak economic development.

in Addition, the ECB shall send a new stimulus package to the banks. Perhaps it should have raised the mood. But a feeling of emptiness and disappointment seems instead to have overwhelmed the markets.

european growth looks to be slowing faster than many analysts have believed. When the oas, the OECD earlier in the week unveiled its global prognosuppdatering were trimmed euro area figures down to a short stubble.

Germany is expected to halve its gdp growth rate to 0.7 percent. The Italian economy is shrinking. The eurozone as a whole is expected to grow by a paltry 1 per cent. To compare with the US's growth, which this year is predicted to be 2.6 per cent.

Europe stand out. One explanation is that the economy has become increasingly dependent on world trade. The clearest example is Germany, which hit hard when China no longer has a ravenous appetite for vehicles, and industrial machinery. But the problem relates to the whole of the continent. The domestic demand is mediocre. The economy stutters as soon as the world exportbeställningar will be fewer.

the rate hike was necessary. The tightening had been lousy timing. But if the ECB think that inflation is well below 2 per cent and that growth shows – which is what the bank think – why do not more?

Despite the fact that even the ECB lowered its own forecasts on Thursday, there are some within the central bank who believe that the expectations of the jubilee year is too optimistic.

the Options are unfortunately few. The policy rate is already superlåg. Legal obstacles are at the same time, in the way of further köpoffensiver on the bond market, as it's usually called quantitative easing.

a bit of luck. Brexit must not be the day of judgment. Theresa Mays nightmare might have a happy end. The economic tensions that revolve around the Italy has so far been kept in check, and so it may probably continue. It is also very possible that Donald Trumps rumble of an escalating trade war ring out.

In that case can the european economy very well recover later in the year.

But with a little less lucky, the decline in the place deepened. The OECD calls in this week's report, the european countries that can make getting ready for fiscal stimulus, thus to spend more and cut taxes.

In simple terms, this means that, above all, Germany needs to loosen the belt when not mounted. Which is easier said than done in a country where thrift is a clause in the constitution. Yet there are some signs that the germans no longer believe implicitly in its surplus.

such A shift in attitudes would be crucial if the economic conditions deteriorate.

, active in the decades after the second world war, made a famous parable of a central bank's task: the Job is to hide away fruktbålen just when the party got started.

But one of Europe's problems since the financial crisis has been that the politicians and central bankers mixed too watery highball. Then have you threatened with last orders long before the guests started to let loose. The ECB has for many years been talking about interest rate hikes, which do not become of the.

The 20-årskalaset risk to be terribly boring is partly due to the.

Avatar
Your Name
Post a Comment
Characters Left:
Your comment has been forwarded to the administrator for approval.×
Warning! Will constitute a criminal offense, illegal, threatening, offensive, insulting and swearing, derogatory, defamatory, vulgar, pornographic, indecent, personality rights, damaging or similar nature in the nature of all kinds of financial content, legal, criminal and administrative responsibility for the content of the sender member / members are belong.