(Obi.en): the Signals from both president Donald Trump, and more reliable sources - such As formulated in the current morgenrapport - tells about the progress in the handelsforhandlingene between China and the united STATES.
Optimism related to the positive outcome of the handelsforhandlingene bring some more stability into the markets, and a solution can provide a long-awaited positive impulse to the economic development, " says chief strategist Christian Lie in the Danske Bank Wealth Management to the Obi.no.
Important deadlines: 2. march
He believes it is a positive sign that the talks are continuing into the third day.
the Parties have found some themes they can negotiate further on, even if it is unlikely that it will be something more concrete out of it that is currently underway, continuing the Lie.
He points to the fact that the conversations in this game take place on a lower diplomatic and political level.
But it is positive that the americans, amongst others, have sent representatives for the ministries of agriculture, energy and finance. It shows that they may be more inclined to go in the details than in the past, tells sjefstrategen.
The first signal about a possible summit, according to Lie, be that Trump possibly to meet China's vice president during the World Economic Forum in Davos 22.-25. January.
- It may initiate a process that can provide a letter of intent within 2. march, before a reading. escalation of tariffs, " he says.
See more arguments for the
Danske Bank now sees several arguments that China and the united STATES will land a trade agreement.
The most important thing is that Trump sets with the weaker forhandlingskort than in the past, when the u.s. economy and u.s. equity markets were in the tailwind. The u.s. economy in general and us markets in particular is now showing large svakhetstegn. And there is one thing Trump is depending on to get re-elected, it is just a strong american economy and that stock markets do not fall as much, " explains Lie.
- another important point is that many vippestater is affected by chinese tariffs on imports of jordbruksvarer and natural gas, just two of the probably hottest topics in the negotiations. Here Trump clear incentives to get the tariffs away, continues sjefstrategen.
According to the Lie has the president's support in the american business sector has been surprisingly high in the periods.
- What we have seen in the reporting of the 3. quarter, and probably will continue to see in the reporting of 4. quarter, is that several american companies are now more uncertain of what handelskrigen means for them. They think the picture has become less transparent. In addition, Trump allowed this closure of government agencies a long time now, " he says further.
China will also stretch out
But if Trump has stronger incentives than before to negotiate a deal, this according to Danske Bank also chinese.
- the Arrows for the chinese economy are pointing downwards. Including came important PMI indices below 50 in the last week. It is in kinesernes interest to avoid further escalation of the handelskrigen, which will give an additional negative shock for the economy, and they will, therefore, also extend slightly longer than the previous, continuing the Lie.
Sjefstrategen have a clear idea about that svakhetstegnene for the chinese economy will continue into 2. quarter, we are beginning to see the positive effects of the measures that have been introduced.
such A move came, for example, on Friday of last week, when China's central bank warned a cut in banks ' reservekravrate by one percentage point. Lower reserve requirements cut banks ' funding costs and free up large sums of money in liquidity.
- Will clearly raise the stock exchanges
If China and the united STATES to land a trade agreement, it is well tailored for new rise on the stock exchanges?
- We see that the stock markets react immediately on the positive signs, but much of the optimism to the negotiations we can see now is priced in. We get an object lesson, it will give the markets a boost - everything else the same, the answers Lie.
What do you put in a object lesson?
- It is difficult to say. Handelskonflikten between China and the united STATES is not the only usikkerhetsmomentet in today's market, and the weakness of the world economy will continue, even if we were to get a deal, " sjefstrategen.
But we get an agreement, the focus again turns on the Federal Reserve. The reason that the central bank was so "duete" (in contrast to "haukete", ed. anm) last, was just the turbulence in the markets. We get børsoppgang as a result of a trade agreement, will the rhetoric from the Fed is likely to be less "duete", he adds.
In phase, the exchanges are inside the now, believe the Lie that a trade agreement "clearly" will give stock markets a boost.
But we see still some clouds in the sky, reminds him of.
- Risk to provide returns
Today's market must be quite challenging to maneuver in for an investor?
- that's It. However, most investors in the stock market has a long-term horizon. We see the very rare negative return on the stock exchanges two years in a row, unless we are in a recession. We have a clear idea of that recession will occur either for the U.S. or the global economy in 2019. Therefore, we believe the stock market can provide a positive return in 2019, but we are more worried about 2020, " says sjefstrategen.
- In the u.s. economy the effects of Trumps fiscal policy will be gone. At the same time, the Fed - in our eyes - raised the interest rate two more times, the answers Lie, and shows that the markets are pricing in a greater likelihood of rate cuts.
- From the investor's standpoint, it is easy to be afraid of the ugly headlines at times of kursfall. We see, for example, that the volatility in 2018 more was in line with the historical average compared with the dance on the roses the year before. Most investors need to smear themselves with patience and be prepared for turbulence. They must not forget the risk premium - that, over time, is the risk that will contribute to the return, end, Danske Bank-the strategist faced with the Obi.no.
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