Berlin dreams of a strong German Bank

For years, speculation about a possible merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank tendrils. Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, seems to push for such a merger. the Meike Schreiber, Frankfurt Meike Schreiber

Meike Schreiber, born in 1975 in Karlsruhe, Germany, studied German literature, romance Philology and Economics in Lyon, Freiburg and Cologne and subsequently completed an internship at the Financial Times USA. There, she worked from 2003 until the end of the FTD in the year 2012 as an editor in the banking and Finance Department in Frankfurt. Then they became independent and founded the press office SchreiberDohms. For the SZ reported that since 2015 as a banking correspondent from the financial centre of Frankfurt.

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it was a year ago could scarcely have imagined someone in the financial industry, the stock of the German Bank would fall to below seven euros. To weddings they had been a good 100 Euro value. In fact, however, is a clear sign that German does not want to succeed Bank chief, Christian Sewing, the turn has of course halved in the past twelve months, even fast. Also, Commerzbank is not much better. Now, if the economy is weakening, threatening the perfect storm.

so What would be to merge closer than the Institute, in order to rise together? Only many fusion advisors, but also to the Federal Minister of Finance Olaf don't seem to be pushing Scholz. He wanted a "strong deutsche Bank," he says. The question is not is driving him, how the Federal government can part with his stake in Commerzbank, but much more the concern that banks could be caught in a downward spiral. However, a merger is the solution? Six reasons speak against it:

is Strong relative

Who thinks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank would be strengthened by a merger in an international comparison, particularly, is likely to be wrong. Together, they would be on the stock market 24 billion euros in value. So you were on the rankings of the world's largest money houses in the best case, between the age of 40. and 50. Place. Also in Europe they would place anything other than a top. In front of a hostile Takeover, the merged Bank would not be protected. In addition, The Deutsche Bank has to fight, especially in the USA, in Asia and in investment banking. A merger with the much smaller Commerzbank would not improve their position there. And: Large companies when exporting to accompany, is also possible. Although both banks are gaining more Power in the home market, but whether they could enforce higher prices for current accounts or credit, is entirely uncertain. To the delight of the customers, and thanks to savings banks, people's banks and financial Start-ups continue to brisk competition.

Sick

In Frankfurt are circulating in the meantime, many funny comparisons with the views of the two large banks: the speech of two patients, which make up a Healthy, two post carriages, which stretched in a row result in no streaker or two turkeys, which are not common to the eagle. In other words: Before you even think of a Fusion, should solve the institutions, many experts believe that once their own problems - the Commerzbank needs to complete your removal, and your processes digitize, and Deutsche Bank to incorporate the subsidiary, Postbank. Not for nothing, Sewing always speaks of the next twelve to 18 months was not thinking of a merger. And also in the vicinity of Commerzbank-Chef Martin Zielke is warned of the complexity of the task. Finally, the Commerzbank has taken ten years to integrate the political pressure acquired Dresdner Bank. In theory, could be due to a merger, although high costs, what would be the elimination of Thousands of jobs, especially in the outlets. But even if one would consider this in times of full employment for acceptable: In reality, such savings are often not nearly as easy to work with, especially if you get the brands, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank and Postbank.

Many private customers would return the merged Bank but the back, when a brand lose. For many customers, for example, are quite aware of the Commerzbank and not at Deutsche Bank. Also, large customers distribute their banking relationships rather several homes; from one and one, rarely two, in the Banking.

paralyzed company

A Fusion of "Yellow" and "Blue" would implement the organizations in addition, for many years cripple. Years in which the Banker, products, customers, markets and competition neglected. Years in which many of the especially busy would be to find their new role in the merged company. Years in which financial Start-ups to take away the banks more business. Last but not least, different shareholders of the two banks would have to, such as hedge funds, the Federal government or investors from Qatar, to agree on a common perspective.

too big To falling over

thanks to the new Bank money houses rules in the case of a wrong be settled without the taxpayers, and under joint and several liability of the bondholders. After a merger with Commerzbank, however, a catch certainly yet again would be so difficult. The word is out on the market that can refinance the merged Bank is more favourable and thus is a quasi-state-guarantee of your business. No wonder that the Financial overseer of a merger continue to be skeptical.

problems

It is often overlooked, but the success or failure of banks will depend on the computer. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank intend to get with a lot of money obsolete IT. To be able to continue in the competition, would have to modernize the banks, but in dire need of your systems. However, this would be through a merger, probably more expensive and time-consuming.

Who's in charge

Commerzbank chief Executive Martin Zielke is currently said to be in addition to the Federal government, one of the drivers of the merger. In his environment, this will be rejected, but at least if you look at the share price of the two houses, it is clear that Zielke had good reason to do so. Measured at equity the shares will be listed price of the Commerzbank a bit higher than that of the Deutsche Bank. From this, the Commerzbank could negotiate with the Fusion a better position for their shareholders. For the Deutsche Bank shareholders a merger would be currently rather poor. On the other hand, the Commerzbank had to write off a likely high proportion of Italy-bonds in the case of a merger. That could tear holes in the balance sheet, which would in turn plug only, through a capital increase. The shareholders must once again fresh money.