The recent trading days on the stockholm stock exchange has stopped with green figures. Seen to the whole of 2019 so far, the broad OMXSPI index increased by 14.8 per cent. Further a couple of per cent would mean a record high.
– It is exceptional. A good year's return in just a couple of months really. But then you should also consider from where the upturn is coming, " says Frida Bratt.
She aims at the dramatic decline in the autumn. The last two months of the year 2018, the stock market fell even more than it has gone up this year, almost 17 percent from the beginning of October.
According to the Frida Bratt is the biggest reason for this year's rise. It is, therefore, a recovery from a weak autumn rather than anything else.
– It is like a rubber band going back now. It becomes quite obvious that we praised a little too much negative in how far we have come in this recession, it talked about, " she says.Frida Bratt, sparekonom at Nordnet, sees big risks to depositors, fill with Swedbankaktier after the scandal. Photo: Pressphoto.
A contributing factor to the decline in the fall, was storbolagens last quarterly throughout the year. Ceo comments hintade many times that we were on the top of the economy, and that worse times were to wait.
That the exchange is now taking does not automatically mean that the thoughts disappear, says Bratt.
– An increase is good if there are underlying factors, that it is good for companies or the economy to see strong indications of good growth or the like.
– So it has not been during this upturn. These signs that the economy is slowing has continued and, in some cases, even escalated, particularly in China and Europe, " says Frida Bratt.Link to the graphics
The fact that the initial months of the year are unusually good do not necessarily indicate an exceptionally strong year on the stock market. The same old storm clouds that threatened in the autumn are left behind and create uncertainty both on the stockholm stock exchange and on other markets.
and there is still no one who knows how it falls out. Neither is it possible to predict trade wars between the united states and China, and when, or if, any agreement reached between the parties. Johanna Litter, sparekonom on Avanza, think of a groovy year.
– this run, as we have seen in the beginning of the year. All four quarters will not have this kind of gains. It can not be reckoned with.
– It can definitely be nice, especially now, when the first quarterly reports will, " she says.Johanna Litter, sparekonom on Avanza, think of a groovy year on the stock market. Photo: Avanza
In Sweden has very much been about the banks. The nordea share was affected already in the autumn of allegations of money laundering and was given a new stone in the beginning of the year. Shortly after that, it was Swedbank's tour and the fall became much worse.
It was the Mission review allegations of suspected money laundering and links to Danske Bank-the skein that got the stock to lose around 20 per cent in a day. Several high-ranking within the bank took the opportunity to stock up shares at a good price and the retail investors were quick to do the same.
: nordnet's customers, the number of the owner of the Swedbankaktier increased by 53 per cent since the end of the year. At the competitor of Avanza, the number of Swedbankägare increased by 66 per cent since its shares slumped.
" We saw the steepest bankfallen got many privatsparare to rush to their shares. It can I think is a reckless strategy considering how sensitive the issue is and what consequences it can have, " says Johanna Litter.
Frida Bratt is of the same opinion.
– There are very many who think that a fall of 25 percent is equal to 25 percent discount, but there are threats which makes it quite risky. There is much uncertainty around this, as if it should get a fine from the US, for example, " she says.
Read also: the Results of the Swedbank report are presented