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Auto industry 2019 : departure into the Unknown

Las Vegas is for the automotive industry the new Detroit. In the coming week will be opened in the US city of CES, the Consumer Electronics Show. On one of the world's largest trade fairs for consumer electronics, the manufacturers of game consoles, a TV and Hi - Fi equipment, or other Home Entertainment technology play an increasingly smaller role. Instead, car manufacturers and their suppliers use the CES as an innovations show at the start of the year. Formerly, it was the Detroit Motor Show a few days later, on 19. January, begins. From 2020, they will be in the summer moved to the better of the CES sell.

The new priority is to show where the car industry developed. A Trend that we will see in 2019 is even more The classic manufacturers of vehicles with internal combustion engine are witnessing the beginning of the biggest Transformation of its more than 100-year history. The elaborate Shows around the premieres of new cars remain important. But even more important is the big future topics: electric mobility, Autonomous Driving, connectivity, digitization, and AI, new mobility services.

Thus, visions and hopes, but also Fears – before the removal of Jobs, the attack from outside the industry competitors (Google, Apple & co.), the loss of market position.

TRENDS IN the NEW YEAR

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electric mobility will experience by 2019, according to many experts finally made a breakthrough. Tesla brings Model 3 to Europe, Audi, Mini, Mercedes and VW's own E sell models. Add to new state funding tools for service truck or the renewal of public fleets. With billion – dollar investments and ambitious sales projections to 2025 underscore the German manufacturer their will, to convince with locally emission-free drives on the market-and dominate. But: you start late, the demand is low, the market share in Germany stands at just two percent. It will be interesting if and when the 2019 a German consortium for the construction of a battery cell is formed manufacturing.

all of This will take place on a widespread re-shrinking car market. The new car demand will collapse, predicts the CAR-Center at the University of Duisburg-Essen. It is dropped by the end of 2018, due to the manufacturers botched transition to the new Emission standards WLTP. International, especially China, the largest car market will slow, the industry 2019. CAR expects that there 1.9 million new cars will be less than 2017 (24.2 million) sold. About a fifth of the Chinese manufacturing capacity will remain in 2019 "unused". Add to that the trade war between the US and China. German carmakers, especially BMW, to pay, in the meantime, high tariffs when they Export their produced in the United States SUV in the people's Republic. Could leave the company earlier on China when it ran in the United States and Europe worse, this support in 2019. In Europe, the car experienced to predict demand, especially in the UK because of the Brexits a "real Crash," as the consultant of PwC. Also in 2019, no recovery is in sight. So overall: a High level of investment and the drop in demand will increase the pressure on margins. "The Party takes a break," pulls the CAR to a conclusion.

CONTAMINATED

the aftermath of The Diesel crisis, the car manufacturers in Germany employ in many Places. It is not only dropped, the market share of diesel fuel to barely a third, new cars are selling, in the meantime, even with high premiums and discounts. The gasoline proportion increases, but also the CO2 emissions of the fleet is increasing – with fatal consequences for the climate balance sheet of corporations.

A legacy from the year 2018 only 2019 to the real burden, are driving bans due to high nitrogen oxide loads. The German environmental aid before the courts has more success, it is likely restrictions will apply soon in 30 German cities – also in Berlin. Although the manufacturers are not even with the Software Updates for all of the younger Diesel ready, now Hardware retrofits for older models. Here many of the technical questions are still unanswered, as is the question of who bears the costs. The companies play for time and hope to improve with the sale of new cars, the air in the cities.

the ROLE OF THE POLICY

it remains Difficult to 2019, the relationship between industry and politics. After the fierce Diesel debates, the industry got this before the turn of the Year to feel once again: In the EU, will apply from 2021 stricter CO2 limits for new cars. Without a large share of electric cars, the companies will not be able to comply with the requirements of the European regulator, it is billion, there is a risk of penalties. Volkswagen and other announced, the conversion must now be done faster and more profound. VW-in-chief Herbert Diess warned of the loss of 100 000 jobs.

The Federal Minister of transport, the company in addition to mood, by before Christmas, the legal and technical foundations for Hardware upgrades are provided for older Diesel. VW, so far, after all, ready to cooperate, advised prompt its customers of retrofits and does not want to give technical data for the retrofit companies price. The dispute will go in the new year.

This should not prevent Andrea Nahles. The SPD Chairman has proposed to the Chancellor, by letter, to bring an "industry partnership, automotive industry in 2030" on the way. Similar attempts from the Federal government with a total of five Diesel-peaks, and the creation of a National platform "future of mobility". Out of little came, instead, the government, especially the environment and the Ministry of transport – even at odds of how hard you are to handle the industry.

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electric mobility, 2019, The voltage rises

Henrik Mortsiefer

All know: Nahles' note, the auto industry the "backbone of the German economy", is applicable. 850 000 Employed persons, manufacturers and suppliers directly, hundreds of thousands of other Jobs depend indirectly on the industry. The automotive Transformation will destroy jobs, much like the energy transition or the end of the coal. But there are also new ones will emerge. The forecasts, which effects about electric mobility took place under the dash. The Ifo Institute sees 620 000 Jobs "at risk", should be prohibited, the internal combustion engine in 2030. The Institute for labour market and occupational research and the Fraunhofer Institute to reckon in the worst case, with the net loss of more than 100 000 jobs.

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