(Obi.en): Handelsbanken Capital Markets so, in today's morgenrapport up to Norges Bank's lending survey for 4. quarter of 2018.
- In light of the fact that Norges Bank now has set up the interest rate, it may be interesting to see whether the banks report any changes in låneetterspørselen. But probably not this much changes for the three months we have behind us, wrote senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov.accurate prediction
It was an accurate prediction, as the Norges Bank writes that the demand for loans from both households and non-financial corporations was broadly unchanged in the quarter.
- first, there is a correlation between the change in house prices and changes in låneetterspørselen. And here we have house prices stayed reasonably stable in the three months we have behind us, pointed out Handelsbanken.
- We can also take with that the banks in the last round reported reasonably unchanged låneetterspørsel, and that they'd rather not awaited special changes for 4. quarter. Should the banks have something new to report, it must in that case be expected låneetterspørsel further forward. With continued good activity in the housing market, there is reason to believe that låneetterspørselen has held up, " he continues.
Norges Bank will write it also in the survey that banks expect approximately unchanged låneetterspørsel from households in the 1. quarter of 2019.
the Normal January increase?
senior economist Gonsholt Hov observes, furthermore, that the expectations of house prices in 2019 his poem.
For the month of January you will find everything from those that expect flat nominal prices to those who wait the price rise. Here we have then the memory of the following: It is normal that prices are rising nominally in January. And as usual, it is the seasonally-adjusted figures we care about; have house prices risen more or less than normal for January? he asks.
Seniorøkonomen refers to a recent posting in the DN, where meglerrapporter pointed towards a relatively normal price rise for the month of January to be.
- Nothing immediately stool
Our expectation for 2019 should to be known: We expect a moderate price rise for the year as a whole, where the average annual growth ports a little less than wage growth. It also means that we envision a moderate seasonally adjusted price rise when we see 1. quarter under one, continue Handelsbanken-economist.
He has added two figures (see below) which shows the balance between the number of homes posted for sale and the number that actually sold (respectively). Norway and Oslo).
Article continues below the graphs.is NOT POINTING AT the STOOL: the Graphs in the current morgenrapport from Handelsbanken. Show more
- These are also tilbakedatert with a couple of months; just because the current balance sheet looks to provide some leading information about inflation in the next quarter. As you can see, it seems as if we will see a moderate seasonally adjusted price rise from 1. quarter. Not something immediately stool and krisescenario, in other words, the end Gonsholt Hov.
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