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What do the Andalusia electoral results tell us about the general election?

The Andalusian elections of June 19, 2022 resulted in an absolute majority for PP (58 out of 109 seats in Parliament), a slower pace for the PSOE (33 seats compared with 33 in 2018), disappointing results in Podemos (five seats for Por Andalucia, 2 for Adelante Andalucia compared the 17 they received in 2018 under a single acronym), and the disappearance Ciudadanos' 21 seats.

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What do the Andalusia electoral results tell us about the general election?

The Andalusian elections of June 19, 2022 resulted in an absolute majority for PP (58 out of 109 seats in Parliament), a slower pace for the PSOE (33 seats compared with 33 in 2018), disappointing results in Podemos (five seats for Por Andalucia, 2 for Adelante Andalucia compared the 17 they received in 2018 under a single acronym), and the disappearance Ciudadanos' 21 seats.

These results are extremely relevant, not only because they give Popular Party the government in the most populous Autonomous Community of the country but also because they have important implications for the national level.

Two long-term trends were confirmed by the Andalusian election. The first is the Ciudadanos disaster: surprisingly, the right-wing bloc now includes two parties. The second is the weakness in the Podemos space. The PSOE space is only 7 of the 109 seats in Andalusian parliament. This is significant because it's the first time that a broad coalition, which includes Izquierda Unida and Podemos, Mas Pais, Equo, and others, competes for Yolanda Diaz's national helm.

Many media outlets were excited about Yolanda Diaz's arrival and her assessment of the polls. They wondered if Diaz had the ability to save United We Can. Andalusia's results indicate that she will have a difficult time.

Vox's results have slightly improved compared with the 2018 regional elections, but only by a few percentage points and three seats. He has also lost nearly seven points to what he received in Andalusia during the general elections in November 2019. His participation in government will be restricted to Castilla y Leon for now.

These are not good electoral results but they may be less so in strategic terms. The absolute majority of PP was a lifeline to Abascal's supporters. Vox would be in a difficult spot if he won't give up his votes, which would render him irrelevant and force him to abandon his promises. Or he could risk an electoral repeat, which could have been a major setback for the party.

Rest of the results cannot be extrapolated. One, the PSOE's result is modest for Andalusia. This is despite the fact that its rivals on the left have fallen. National leaders participated in his campaign. It is possible that the PSOE's modest results are due in part to Madrid's punishment.

It is also true that their poor performance is consistent with the results of the previous two regional elections: the February 2022 Castilla y Leon election and the May 2021 Madrid election (where they were the third force behind Mas Madrid). It is important to remember that the PSOE was the fourth-ranked political force in Catalonia's February 2021 elections.

It is important to be careful when reading the results of the PP in a country code. The PP was also successful in Galicia, where Feijoo received 48% of votes and an absolute majority. In Madrid, 2021, Ayuso won 44.7% of votes and held four absolute majority seats. It is also true that he won a bitter victory at Castilla y Leon in February 2022, and that he received very poor results in Catalonia (where he was ranked eighth in political forces) and in 2020 in Basque Country (where he ranked sixth). Although the PP's victory in Andalusia was excellent, the PP remains weak in certain territories.

It's also interesting to note that the PP can achieve good results in many ways. Feijoo and Moreno Bonilla, both in Andalusia, have won the most recent victories with moderate and autonomist talents. Diaz Ayuso has achieved in Madrid with a hard ideological discourse and strong confrontation with left.

In each of these cases, VOX continued to rise but has slowed down. Is the PP able to keep the most profitable strategy at each location to meet its objectives? What strategy is more profitable at the national level for you? Will the PP be able to articulate a coherent national discourse in time for the general election? Many questions remain unanswered.

This article was published in "The Conversation".

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