Deep black clouds are gathering in the economic sky. The Ifo Institute not only predicts a winter recession for Germany, but also anticipates double-digit inflation rates for the coming spring. Because the upheavals on the energy market are hitting the country with full force, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy assumes that growth will continue to weaken for at least another five years.
The fact that hard times lie ahead for citizens and companies cannot be prevented. The question is whether the economic nation, so spoiled by success, will now be passed down in international competition. The previous business model was based on dependence on Russian gas imports and steadily growing trade with China. Now Germany has to reposition itself without being completely sidelined in terms of costs. A more than difficult task that threatens to fail the traffic light government.
Because instead of doing everything to strengthen companies in this existential crisis, the opposite is still happening in many areas. In energy policy, for example, there is an endless debate about nuclear power. It must be clear to everyone that energy and electricity prices will go through the roof as a result of an acute shortage of supply.
Anything that leads to a larger supply thus helps to dampen the upward pressure on prices. Instead, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck from the Greens is already talking publicly about the fact that some sectors could stop producing or selling in winter.
In this case, launching state rescue programs based on the model of corona aid, as SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert has promised, can hardly be the solution if Germany is actually facing the prophesied long-lasting slump. A promise to save everyone and everyone is worthless because it cannot be financed. It's not just about bridging a phase.
Because the old days are inevitably over, this time it must be about helping people to help themselves in times of transformation. Massive tax investment incentives, more flexible working hours, accelerated approval processes, support for digitization and conversion to other energy sources would make sense. The coalition had chosen the promising motto “Dare to make more progress”. Nothing of that can be seen yet.