"The message to China must be: Don't attack, it would be incredibly expensive for you economically"

WORLD: Mr. Faber, in the past few months you have worked intensively to support Ukraine. Now you have traveled to Taiwan. Why?

Marcus Faber: When Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in the summer, we saw that this democracy is being massively threatened by the dictatorship next door in Beijing. That's something that connects Taiwan and Ukraine, it's about Moscow there.

I was therefore interested in how the security situation is currently assessed here on site. I was last in Taipei four years ago - and indeed, the situation has changed significantly.

WORLD: What is the security situation assessment like?

Faber: The Chinese dictatorship has made massive investments, multiplied the defense budget in recent years and thereby gained additional military capabilities. The navy is now the largest in the world. But because Putin's war against Ukraine is so incredibly unsuccessful in relation to its goals, the Taiwanese believe that they have a little less pressure and that the invasion threatened by China's ruler Xi Jinping is not imminent.

My interlocutors believe that Xi will think about it a second and third time before taking this step. However, there is still a fear that he is surrounded only by followers who do not teach him about reality and that he might be inclined to make wrong assumptions. This is also something that Putin and Xi Jinping might have in common.

WORLD: How do people in Taiwan view the recent People's Congress, which, contrary to the constitution, elected Xi ruler for life?

Faber: If you follow the Taiwanese insider view, Xi didn't act from a situation of strength, but from a situation of weakness. He is said to fear that his opponents in the Communist Party would do to him what he did to his predecessor Hu Jintao - that he would be simply removed without office. And that because of this weakness he only surrounds himself with his own followers.

I find that interesting, as well as the analysis that he is striving for legitimacy internationally. Because Xi's own party denies this legitimacy to a certain extent after his coup, external confirmation is all the more important. That's why I've often been asked why western countries give it that legitimacy by going to Beijing. You need a good reason for such maneuvers.

WORLD: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) also explained his visit to Beijing by saying that he wanted to win China over to Putin's joint warning of the use of nuclear weapons.

Faber: I also communicated that here. It was also understood and accepted. However, the question is also asked why such a large business delegation was needed for this.

WORLD: This week, the federal government also held direct talks with government officials in Taiwan for the first time since the end of the corona restrictions. Taiwan's Science Minister was in Berlin and met his counterpart, Ms. Stark-Watzinger (FDP). The Parliamentary State Secretary in the Ministry of Economics, Mrs. Brantner (Greens), was in Taipei. However, both of them don't talk about it that much, probably because they fear Beijing's reaction. Is that the right approach for government officials?

Faber: Doing is much more important than talking, so the colleagues have already made the main point. As a liberal member of parliament, however, I follow the motto: It is completely normal for democrats to visit each other in different countries - and of course to talk about it.

WORLD: How should Germany prepare for possible aggression by China against Taiwan?

Faber: As Germans, we cannot contribute militarily in this region. It's about playing through economic measures for yourself, coordinating them with the European partners - and also bringing parts of them to the attention of the Chinese side. The message must be: don't do it, don't invade, don't attack, it would be incredibly expensive for you economically.

WORLD: But also for Germany.

Faber: Sure. But deterrence only works if you sharpen your tools. A year ago I was at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Washington. Many colleagues from other countries asked me there: What do you do if things start with Putin and the Ukrainians in winter?

Later, in Berlin, I reported on the early delivery of arms and training efforts by other countries in the Ukraine, but it fell on deaf ears. Berlin only woke up when war broke out. We should not repeat this mistake.

WORLD: What does that mean specifically?

Faber: I think we should cooperate more economically with Taiwan, involve it as an observer in international organizations such as the WHO and also ensure that this country can defend itself better. The status quo can only be changed peacefully and by mutual consent.

It's all about small steps. So I encourage scientists and students from Taiwan to come to the German Armed Forces Universities in Hamburg and Munich as teachers and learners.

"Kick-off Politics" is WELT's daily news podcast. The most important topic analyzed by WELT editors and the dates of the day. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music or directly via RSS feed.