Post a Comment Print Share on Facebook

The labor market gap is growing - with consequences for citizens and the economy

Inflation, war, energy crisis, risk of recession - but the German labor market has withstood it all so far.

- 8 reads.

The labor market gap is growing - with consequences for citizens and the economy

Inflation, war, energy crisis, risk of recession - but the German labor market has withstood it all so far. Workers are even desperately wanted. According to the Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research (IAB), almost two million jobs are vacant, and the trend is rising.

This has consequences for citizens: Germans will soon have to adjust to limited service in the authorities, longer waiting times for craftsmen and medical care, warns labor market expert Holger Schäfer from the German Economic Institute.

According to calculations by the management consultancy Boston Consulting Group, the shortage also costs the country 86 billion euros in lost economic output every year. The Ifo Institute for Economic Research has found that some companies are more reluctant to hire.

Nevertheless, if the trend continues, there could soon be more vacancies than unemployed. The high demand for employees also ensures that the number of unemployed will probably not increase sharply despite the impending recession - unlike in previous economic crises.

According to a forecast by the IAB, it is expected to increase by 2.3 percent to around 2.47 million in 2023. The basis for the calculation is the assumption that the gross domestic product will shrink by 0.4 percent in the coming year.

To ensure that this rate does not skyrocket, Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) has made it clear that short-time work should continue to be part of the fight against the crisis. While up to six million people were temporarily on short-time work during the lockdown in 2020, there are currently around 44,000.

For comparison: In the financial crisis of 2009, the highest figure was 1.14 million. The leading economic research institutes assume that the number of short-time workers will increase again in winter. Because the requirements are low: Companies can apply for short-time work from a loss of work of ten percent.

On average for the current year, an average of 3.5 million people received unemployment benefit II, known as Hartz IV. It is to be replaced by citizen benefit from January. However, only just under 40 percent of employable beneficiaries are actually unemployed.

Eleven percent complete so-called labor market policy measures, such as further training, 14 percent are in unsubsidized employment, ten percent are in school, studying or in training. Only seven percent are registered as unable to work.

The gap in the labor market is widening not only because many baby boomers - those born between 1946 and the mid-1960s - are retiring and not enough immigrants are coming into work to make up for the losses.

There is also an imbalance in the ratio of students to trainees. In 2005 there were fewer than two million students in this country; in the past semester there were almost three million - a high. At the same time, the number of trainees fell from around 1.55 million to 1.26 million.

However, the shortage is acute in many apprenticeship trades, such as skilled trades. There is already a shortage of more than 250,000 workers – and the trend is rising here too.

After all: In the IT industry, which is also urgently looking for employees, more young people are in sight: IT specialists are currently the fourth most popular apprenticeship and computer science the second most popular subject.

"Everything on shares" is the daily stock exchange shot from the WELT business editorial team. Every morning from 7 a.m. with our financial journalists. For stock market experts and beginners. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Amazon Music and Deezer. Or directly via RSS feed.

Avatar
Your Name
Post a Comment
Characters Left:
Your comment has been forwarded to the administrator for approval.×
Warning! Will constitute a criminal offense, illegal, threatening, offensive, insulting and swearing, derogatory, defamatory, vulgar, pornographic, indecent, personality rights, damaging or similar nature in the nature of all kinds of financial content, legal, criminal and administrative responsibility for the content of the sender member / members are belong.