The end of the precise climate targets for Germany

Shortly before the United Nations World Climate Conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, which begins next Sunday, the federal government presented proposals to reform the German Climate Protection Act (KSG), which essentially represent a softening of the previous requirements.

The CO₂ savings of 65 percent stipulated by law should still be achieved by 2030. Nevertheless, the specification of annual CO₂ maximum quantities for the individual sectors of the economy is to be abolished in the future. This means that companies in the agricultural, industrial or transport sectors no longer have to worry about becoming the target of short-term market intervention by politicians.

These proposals to soften the strict CO₂ limits that have previously applied are part of the “key points for an immediate climate protection program” that are to be decided by the Federal Cabinet this Wednesday.

With the reform plans, the federal government is softening the core of the German climate protection law. Just as the KSG was designed by the former Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD), the sectors industry, buildings, transport, agriculture and waste management were given annual maximum amounts for CO₂ emissions. According to this, the industrial sector should have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 177 million tons this year to 172 million tons next year.

In addition, all sectors were given target values ​​for the year 2030, which correspond to almost halving the emissions of the year 2020. With a reduction commitment from 280 million to 108 million tons of CO₂ in 2030, the target for the energy industry was particularly demanding.

A sector that exceeds its annual maximum amount should be brought back on track within a year by fast-acting “immediate programmes” by the responsible ministry.

The annual CO₂ maximum and the direct responsibility of a federal ministry have so far been at the heart of the Climate Protection Act. Both points are now mitigated by the proposals for the KSG reform.

Instead of an annual maximum amount of emissions, a multi-year CO₂ budget is to be specified in the future. "Starting in 2022, climate protection programs will be drawn up every four years - always in the first year of a legislative period - in which the planned measures in the respective sectors for the respective legislative period will be presented," says the federal government's new "key points".

A "cross-sectoral and multi-annual accounting" is also planned. Sectors such as transport or the building sector are no longer immediately put on course by their responsible ministries for exceeding CO₂ quantities if it appears foreseeable that the target value for 2030 will also be achieved in this way.

"If the projection data suggests that a sector will comply with the annual emission levels overall in a multi-year view up to 2030, no immediate program needs to be drawn up for exceeding the annual emission levels of the previous year," it says literally in the "key points", which will be published in spring 2023 in should lead to an amended climate protection law.

By abandoning the annual maximum CO₂ quantities per sector, the federal government is admitting the failure of this policy approach. In view of the experience with this instrument, the abolition appears to be a logical step.

Because since the law came into force, two sectors, transport and buildings, had exceeded their maximum CO₂ levels in one year. However, the federal ministries of transport on the one hand and construction on the other failed in their legal obligation to get CO₂ emissions back on track with short-term immediate programs.

This failure was determined by the Expert Council for Climate Issues. It was not until the end of August that the independent committee had judged that the emergency program for the building sector "does not ensure" the CO₂ requirements of the law and that there is also "an increasing risk of missing the target".

The expert council even confirmed that the emergency program of the Federal Ministry of Transport had been formulated “without sufficient claim right from the start”. The transport sector targets for 2030 threatened to be "significantly missed".

According to the Climate Protection Act, the Expert Council has the task of checking the ministries' emergency programs for their suitability. But the scientists also expressed fundamental criticism of the KSG itself: The application of the law was made more difficult by unresolved "unresolved issues and questions of interpretation", including the question of what "the exact subject of the test" should actually be.

With the announcement of a new climate protection law in the key points, the federal government promises to eliminate these weak points. Otherwise, the paper mainly contains a summary of the climate protection measures that have already been decided or announced.

For the transport sector, which has particularly clear deficits in climate protection, the federal government will decide on measures next spring, according to the key points.

In the coalition agreement, the traffic light coalition had agreed to launch an “immediate climate protection program” this year and to “consistently further develop” the climate protection law. Both should only be "immediately finalized". The aim is to “set all climate policy groundwork for the legislative period” this year.

It remains unclear why, so shortly before the end of the year, the federal government is still publishing a “Key Points Paper” as a pure declaration of intent instead of the announced emergency program. It can be assumed that the German government did not want to be left empty-handed at the 27th World Climate Conference, which begins in Egypt on Sunday.

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