The 60plus generation secures victory for the SPD

According to the analysis by the Wahlen research group, there are three reasons for the success of the SPD in Lower Saxony - namely: reputation, skills and candidate. Supported by a lot of encouragement from the older generation, the SPD's success in Lower Saxony is based on good government work, a good reputation locally and a superior top candidate, Stephan Weil.

When the economy is down and there are great personal concerns about the future, the SPD also enjoys more trust in social and economic issues than the CDU, which – in addition to only having a moderate standing locally – also has no tailwind in federal politics. The Greens score on the hot topic of energy policy.

The number one success factor for the SPD is Stephan Weil: His values ​​are just below those of the best German prime ministers, he impresses with his record (good work: 71 percent) and high reputation. On the 5/-5 scale, Weil (2.1) is clearly ahead of CDU challenger Bernd Althusmann (1.2). Only 26 percent want Althusmann as head of government, but 55 percent want Weil, who, according to those surveyed, is most likely to lead the country through the uncertain times.

In addition, the Lower Saxony SPD benefited from good work and a good reputation locally. On the other hand, there is hardly any tailwind from the federal government: Neither Chancellor Scholz (reputation 5/-5 scale: 0.9) nor the federal government (work: 0.5) are convincing, whereby the criticism of the traffic light hits the FDP in particular. If there is a strong federal political component in the election, the FDP’s reputation as a federal party collapses (minus 0.2; 2017: 0.9).

In Lower Saxony, the CDU also ranks behind the SPD in terms of reputation, and there are also deficits in terms of content: in an environment in which the economic situation and preparation for the future are viewed more skeptically than in 2017, the CDU has lost competence in these policy areas. The SPD is largely stable and enjoys the most trust here, as well as with “mitigation of rising costs”, “education”, “infrastructure” or “social justice”. When it comes to energy policy, the most important issue alongside “rising prices/costs”, the Greens are strong, while the FDP and AfD remain extremely weak when it comes to party powers.

The basis for the SPD's success is once again being laid by the older generation, with the age gap becoming even greater: the SPD manages a strong 42 percent (unchanged) among those aged 60 and over, while among those under 30 it only comes after considerable losses to 22 percent (minus nine percentage points). The CDU loses a little more among the under-30s and reaches 19 percent (minus eleven percentage points), and it also performs significantly worse than the SPD among those over 60 at 32 percent.

The Greens are traditionally strong among the under-30s with 20 percent (plus seven percentage points), and the FDP is also more than twice as strong in this age group with eleven percent as their overall result. The AfD is strongest in the group of 30 to 44 year olds with 19 percent.

Among voters with a university degree, the Greens are 27 percent (plus eleven percentage points) ahead of the CDU with 24 percent (minus six percentage points), the SPD comes here at 28 percent (minus three percentage points). The AfD is particularly strong among younger voters with little schooling.

While the SPD performs below average among the self-employed with 21 percent, the CDU is strongest here with 36 percent. The Greens are mostly elected by civil servants (20 percent), the AfD by workers (18 percent).

For women, the SPD is clearly ahead of the CDU with 34:27 percent, for men the lead is narrower (31:27). Significantly more men (14 percent) than women (9 percent) vote for the AfD.

The figures are based on a telephone survey by the Wahlen research group among 1,520 randomly selected voters in Lower Saxony in the week before the election and on a survey of 18,794 voters on election day.