Scholz is shipwrecked by Lula

It should be the highlight of Olaf Scholz' trip to Latin America. After one-day visits to Argentina and Chile, the Chancellor lands in Brasilia, the capital of the largest country in South America, on Monday. Shortly before departure, the program for the visit to Brazil had been changed: Scholz added an extra day to it.

Among other things, he lets an urbanist and a professor of architecture show him the city that Oscar Niemeier built radically in the style of classic modernism of the 1950s and 1960s. Scholz loves this style: in private conversations he sometimes makes fun of the old Biedermeier buildings in which almost all politicians and employees from political Berlin live.

He also has only the best feelings for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He addresses him confidentially as "Lula" and addresses him on a first name basis. Scholz sees the leader of the workers' party, which the SPD sees as a sister party, i.e. as a comrade. Yes, probably even as a friend. Scholz had been in contact with Lula during his previous tenures and kept him even after he was ousted from power and was serving time in prison for corruption.

But Lula has been rehabilitated, re-elected president and has been seen as a hero on the European left since a failed storm by supporters of his right-wing populist predecessor Jair Bolsonaro. Since he announced that he would stop the overexploitation of the rainforest that Bolsonaro tolerated, the traffic light government has identified with him.

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier traveled to his inauguration. Development Minister Svenja Schulze (both SPD) traveled ahead of Scholz to Brasilia and brought 200 million euros with her. This is just start-up funding for the first few days of Lula's presidency. Soon more German money will flow to be used in Brazil to combat climate change.

Completely surprisingly, there are already irritations during the confidential talks between the delegations. According to a report from one of the participants, Lula is complaining about an EU regulation that is currently being finalized in Brussels. It is intended to stipulate that only Brazilian products may be imported into Europe that have been produced without deforestation.

Scholz only has an indirect influence on this. But the criticism hits him anyway. Because the Chancellor promoted the new supply chain law of the traffic light coalition at all stations of his trip to Latin America. This places German companies under the obligation to prove that they only use preliminary products for which social, ecological and all sorts of other standards have been complied with. Scholz promotes this as an advantage: Anyone who does business with Germans can be sure in the future that it will be fair. Apparently Lula sees it differently.

It's not the only irritation. At the joint press conference in the presidential palace, the Brazilian unusually refrained from introductory words and immediately asked journalists questions. Scholz looks puzzled. Lula then corrected himself and gave Scholz the floor, who made a long opening statement that ended emphatically: "It is very good news for our planet that President Lula is committed to fighting climate change, protecting the Amazon and the... announced the end of deforestation!”

But experts are already listening with the next sentence. Because now Scholz comes to the "climate club" to speak. Scholz came up with this community of states that coordinate their climate protection policies. He's gathering club members right now. Argentine President Alberto Fernández promised him his accession on Saturday. On Sunday, Chile's President Gabriel Boric even agreed to take over the co-chairmanship.

But Lula, who leads by far the largest economy on the continent, is much more important. And, surprisingly, doesn't seem ready to join the Scholz club. Because the Chancellor only says that "we want to have many, many partners from all parts of the world". So Lula turned him down. But Scholz nevertheless closes enthusiastically: "Let me say one more thing: I'm happy, we're all happy that Brazil is back on the world stage. you were missing! Dear Lula, as you can see, we have big plans together and I am indeed looking forward to a good, long-term collaboration.”

But Lula probably imagines things differently, as becomes clear in the course of Lula's lengthy statements - especially about the war in Ukraine. Because Lula does not speak of the Russian aggressor, but of the "two warring sides". It is not known why the war started: "Some say because Ukraine wanted to join NATO." Pope Francis said the same thing. After the war began, Lula said in an interview about Ukraine's President Zelenskyy: "This guy is just as to blame for the outbreak of the war as Putin."

That puts Lula into perspective only to a very limited extent, even next to Scholz. It is true that "the Russians" made a "classic mistake" when they invaded the territory of another state. But there is a Brazilian proverb: "If one doesn't want to, two don't argue." He didn't understand the cause of the war, but wanted to point out that the US war against Iraq also began with a "lie".

It is now a question of talking to Putin and Zelenskyj. An international coalition with Brazil, China and India must do this: "I don't know when the war will end if we remain inactive for so long." Before the press conference, Lula not only spoke at length with the German delegation, but also beforehand had an almost hour-long, unscheduled one-to-one conversation with the Chancellor.

But now he sounds at times as if he talked to Sahra Wagenknecht instead. Another remark by Lula, which is clearly aimed at the Scholz climate club, which he does not want to join, seems almost cheeky: You can found an “ecological club”, but also a “peace club”.

Scholz listens motionless and only tries, when it is his turn, to correct the impression that Lula has a completely different view of the Ukraine war than he does: We are strong together “when we are walking on the same road. Incidentally, so are we when it comes to ending the terrible war of aggression in Ukraine.”

Scholz then pointed out that Brazil had condemned Russia's attack in the UN as violating international law. But that still happened under the much scolded ex-President Bolsonaro.

Lula doesn't respond, but those who hear him doubt that Brazil would have made the same decision under his presidency. This is of great importance because Lula enjoys great authority among the other left-wing heads of government in Latin America. It is not unthinkable that they would have followed him to aloof neutrality - and abstention at the UN.

It's a hard blow for Scholz. He rightly takes credit for having persuaded many countries of the Global South to condemn the Russian attack with intensive argumentative solicitation. He also wants to reap the fruits of his efforts on this trip: Argentina's president clearly named the aggressor, as did Chile's head of government, and even promised to send ships to Ukraine to clear Russian mines in the Black Sea.

Brazil could help even more. Because before the 2014 World Cup, the country bought Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Germany to protect the stadiums against drone attacks. The use was never necessary, which is why Brazil still has ammunition to this day. Exactly the ammunition that is desperately needed in Ukraine right now.

The federal government is trying to find this ammunition all over the world. However, she will not come from Brazil. "Brazil has no interest in selling munitions that can be used in this war," Lula clarifies. "We are a country committed to peace! We don't even want an indirect part in this war! We need to find someone to help negotiate a peace! You very rarely hear the word peace in discussions!” he almost gets angry.

Did Scholz expect that? During the press conference, he waves to his chief foreign policy adviser, Jens Plötner, and asks him something. His chief of protocol also comes to Lula twice and exchanges words with him, while Scholz answers questions. This is unusual at press conferences by heads of state and government.

Has something gone wrong? Scholz then insists on commonalities, which at least did not exist at this press conference: "There is a clear common position that we condemn the Russian attack on Ukraine."

Lula doesn't seem to be aware of the mess he's getting Scholz into. During the press conference he suddenly cracked a joke: "The only thing that mustn't happen anymore is: Germany can no longer beat Brazil 7 to 1 in football. A 0 to 0 would be decent.”

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