Robust security guarantees are a high risk for the West

One of the most popular truisms of peace and conflict research is that wars in history have mostly been ended by negotiations. Basically, of course, it's never a bad idea for enemies to sit around a table to negotiate some sort of compromise. However, negotiations now require that both parties have an honest interest in a solution. And that they will also accept this permanently. Both of these things can be doubted for Russia.

It is true that Vladimir Putin has just said that they are basically ready for talks. Of course, the "special operation" in Ukraine will not be canceled. And so the Russian contribution to peace efforts is currently as follows: Putin's troops are deliberately destroying the infrastructure throughout the country, millions of people are no longer connected to the electricity grid and can no longer heat, the first Ukrainian officials are warning of deaths from the cold. You show a willingness to compromise in a different way.

The fact that Emmanuel Macron is now making another attempt to persuade Russia to negotiate a peace agreement may be due to general war fatigue or the French President's efforts to keep channels of communication with Russia open. It makes perfect sense for him to think aloud about security guarantees. Because, of course, one day we will have to talk about treaties that guarantee protection for the Ukrainian state. But we also need to realize how risky robust security guarantees are.

Are we talking about a passage that is comparable to Article 5 of the NATO treaty? That would be tantamount to NATO entering the war if Russia did not keep its end of the peace agreement. Which brings us back to the question of the credibility of the efforts of all negotiating partners. Security conditions can therefore only be the second step in the negotiations. The next step must be to formulate conditions for such negotiations to come about – and then to monitor compliance. Everything else ends in a compromise solution in the interests of the aggressor.

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