Now the consequences of an epochal wrong decision must be contained

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has proposed a conference at the United Nations headquarters in New York in February to discuss peace in his country. That's good news. One can assume that Kuleba's proposal came about primarily under pressure from the Americans.

This conference could be the first step towards peace negotiations with Russia. The fact that Kuleba does not want to invite the war opponent Russia to this Ukraine peace conference seems absurd at first glance - but such a step would be premature at the moment, because from Ukraine's point of view it would have crossed a red line.

And what comes after New York? The outcome of this terrible war cannot be the projection surface for ethicists who rightly warn against Russian aggression and fly the flag of freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. You have to acknowledge the realities of this war – as bitter as it is: It is now a brutal trench warfare, neither side is likely to emerge as a “victor” in the foreseeable future.

The Russian economy appears to be largely resistant to Western sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin is firmly in the saddle and the majority of the Russian population continues to support the war. The West has not been able to get important countries like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil or the Gulf States on its side in the Ukraine war.

The West's arms deliveries are still far too slow and the question remains whether they will ever be sufficient to defend the vast country of Ukraine and to be able to recapture lost areas. In addition, support for further arms deliveries to Kyiv is gradually crumbling in Western societies; in Germany it slipped below 50 percent for the first time at the beginning of December.

The cardinal mistake with regard to Ukraine was not to admit Kyiv to NATO in the spring of 2008, contrary to what Washington and London had demanded. At the time, Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy prevented that from happening.

Both preferred to do lucrative deals with Moscow and feared that joining NATO could provoke Putin. Such a step and the alliance's obligation to provide assistance would have prevented the Ukraine war 14 years later. Unfortunately, all that remains now is to contain the consequences of this epochal wrong decision. To put it plainly: there are likely to be negotiations, probably as early as next year, which will result in a shrunken Ukraine.