It doesn't happen too often that the CDU can celebrate elections in the three city states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen. As is well known, it was different in the recent repeat election in the capital, which had to take place due to the chaotic elections in 2021. The Christian Democrats were by far the strongest force and probably also provided the governing mayor.
According to an election day survey by the Wahlen research group, the CDU also came out on top among Berlin's Muslims. Accordingly, 27.7 percent of the Muslim respondents stated that they had ticked the Christian Democrats, as often as the rest of Berlin; overall, the CDU won 28.2 percent.
The SPD voted accordingly less of the Muslim respondents, namely 24.9 percent. The Social Democrats still do slightly better among Muslims than among all Berliners (18.4 percent). The Greens also ended up with 18.4 percent on election night, but apparently had difficulties in winning over the Muslim electorate: only 8.3 percent of respondents who identify themselves as belonging to this religion said they voted for the eco party .
In the case of the partially Islamophobic AfD, the approval ratings of Muslims (4.4 percent) were well below the party's overall result of 9.1 percent. The Left Party, on the other hand, received relatively strong support, reaching 15.2 percent of the Muslim respondents (total: 12.2 percent).
CDU top candidate Kai Wegner has the best chance of moving into the Rotes Rathaus in Berlin in place of Franziska Giffey. His party has spoken out in favor of coalition negotiations with the SPD. "I am firmly assuming that we can do it with the Social Democrats," said Wegner.
The informative value of such surveys should not be overestimated. Although 17,002 Berliners were interviewed by the research group Wahlen on election day, only three percent of them indicated on the questionnaires that they were Muslim.
The data collected only relates to this group, explains the head of the Wahlen research group, Matthias Jung, in an interview with WELT. He points out that no conclusions can be drawn from the data about the party preferences of all people living in Berlin from predominantly Muslim countries of origin. But only those naturalized Muslims who also went to the polls and who also ticked their religious affiliation.
"These are likely to be relatively well-integrated Muslims to whom their faith is personally important," says Jung. Among these people, the "closeness to religion and emphasis on conservative values of the CDU" could be a reason for voting.
However, Jung also notes that the left side of parliament, which is “fragmented into three parties” and made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party taken together, fared significantly better among Muslims than the CDU.
Surveys on the voting behavior of Muslims or on various migrant groups are not frequent. Traditionally, late resettlers tend to lean more towards the Union parties and people of Turkish origin towards the SPD. For example, a survey by the opinion research company Data4U from 2020 among Turkish-born Germans for the 2021 federal election showed that 44 percent would have voted for the SPD. The Greens also did well with 26 percent, the CDU and CSU weakly with twelve percent.
In 2018, an evaluation of the party preferences of migrant groups by the Migration Expert Council found that 37 percent of immigrants from Turkey supported the SPD. In the previous survey in 2016, 70 percent were still in favor of the oldest German party. However, not only those of Turkish origin who were eligible to vote were interviewed, but also those without a German passport. There were no follow-up investigations of this kind by the Advisory Council.
In addition, in a study by the University of Duisburg-Essen from 2022, the voting behavior of migrants in the 2021 federal election was only evaluated for the city of Duisburg. According to this, around 39 percent of people of Turkish origin stated that they voted for the SPD with their second vote. 17 percent voted for the CDU and 15 percent for the Greens. The left was relatively strong compared to the other groups of origin with 13 percent, the FDP comparatively weak with five percent.
"The SPD was still ahead, but there is no longer any real dominance in this group," it said. Among the second large group of immigrant voters, the Russian-Germans, 30 percent said they gave their second vote to the Social Democrats and about 28 percent to the Greens. In a comparison of all groups of origin, the Russian Germans would have cast the most second votes for the AfD (six percent) and the fewest for the left (two percent) and the FDP (five).
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