Midterms, Republican divisions, business... The pitfalls of candidate Trump

The air in the large ballroom at Mar-a-Lago, Florida suddenly clouded with applause. "I announce my candidacy for the presidential election". To the guests gathered in his luxurious residence, the businessman at the center of attention promises to "clean out the backwater" of Washington, the elites hated of himself. As in 2016, the one who was the 45th president of the United States assures that with him, America will be "back".

But his return to him, is it really possible? Rumors have been swirling in recent weeks about an impending announcement from Donald Trump. It's done, but the hardest part is yet to come. The former tenant of the White House formalized his wish to settle there again this Wednesday, at his home, castigating in passing the current President Joe Biden even if, for a few days, the contrary winds have been blowing again at Mar-a-Lago.

In his villa, in front of his family, Donald Trump portrayed Joe Biden as enemy number. The current president would drive the country to the “bringing point of nuclear war” and destroy the American economy. Immediate reaction of the person concerned: "Trump has let America down", rebuked Joe Biden, traveling to Indonesia. He also recently affirmed his "intention" to run for a second term, without making it official. A few hours after the announcement of candidacy, here are the two men in the process of drawing the possibility of a remake of the presidential election of 2020. Trump still has to hold out until the elections.

If the now candidate is supported by the Republicans, the party, which he participated in reshaping, has just suffered a major setback. Announced big favorites in the mid-term elections, which determine the composition of the American Parliament, and a set of other elected officials across the country, the Elephants did not at all cause the expected earthquake. According to the latest results, the House of Representatives only tipped "red" by 8 seats. As for the Senate, it is still in the hands of the Democrats.

The more than mixed performance of the Republican camp, in particular from candidates dubbed by Donald Trump, has tarnished the reputation of the kingmaker of the tribune. Several influential voices in the conservative camp have also called on the real estate magnate to step aside from the Republican leadership, casting a shadow over his presidential projects. Part of the conservative nebula has already turned to another possible contender for the White House and resident of Florida: its governor, Ron DeSantis. The 40-year-old, new star of the hard right, who is coming out, strengthened by the mid-term elections, assured that his fight "was only just beginning".

Donald Trump retains undeniable popularity for the moment. The majority of polls still give him the winner of a Republican primary. An obstacle could however complicate his return: his numerous legal troubles could end up disqualifying him. Justice is investigating his role in the assault on the Capitol, his financial affairs, his management of the White House archives or the pressure exerted on electoral agents.

If nothing in American law prohibits a person prosecuted, or even convicted, from seeking a presidential mandate, a possible indictment could cast a shadow on his campaign. Unless he takes advantage of it... The American billionaire continues to denounce political persecution, against himself first, but more broadly against "conservatives" and "patriots". An indictment could then remotivate his troops.