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"Last Winter Russia May Affect European Economy"

After the recent military successes of the Ukrainian army and the explosion on the Crimean bridge, there is a risk that the war in Ukraine will escalate further.

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"Last Winter Russia May Affect European Economy"

After the recent military successes of the Ukrainian army and the explosion on the Crimean bridge, there is a risk that the war in Ukraine will escalate further. Putin's airstrikes are now aimed at civilian infrastructure to hit power and heat supplies. The West, on the other hand, fears increased sabotage and cyber attacks. In the deadlocked situation, can we still expect the conflict to ease any time soon?

This was discussed on Thursday evening by Maybrit Illner with her talk show entitled "Hot war in Ukraine - hybrid war in Europe?". Guests included Green Party leader Omid Nouripour, Left veteran Gregor Gysi, military expert Peter Neumann, former US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, and Margarete Klein, an expert on Russian military policy.

The ZDF foreign reporter Katrin Eigendorf was also connected from Kyiv, who described her impressions of the Ukrainian capital, which had come under fire, right at the beginning of the program. "I see that people are resolutely resisting, but it will be a big challenge," she said, referring to the existing supply shortages, power outages and complete destruction of infrastructure in the liberated areas in the east of the country.

She said she found the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, whom she was able to interview the day before, less bitter and more confident than at the beginning of the war. Relations with Germany have also improved significantly. "Zelenskyj is convinced that Germany has now understood what Ukraine is about," she said with certainty.

For Margarete Klein, the renewed escalation from Russia comes as no surprise. "Putin is under pressure, because Putin's regime legitimizes itself very strongly through the demonstration of foreign policy greatness," she analyzed. They are counting on maximum escalation, including the nuclear threat against Ukraine.

"Putin will try to prolong this conflict in order to test the patience of the West," Ben Hodges was sure. However, the former US general was skeptical that this strategy would work and dared to make a bold forecast: "This is the last winter in which Russia can affect the European economy. They played the gas card, their ace up their sleeve, far too early. I believe that by the summer the Russians can be pushed back and even Crimea can be liberated again.”

Illner wanted to know from Gregor Gysi whether the attacks on the civilian population could change his mind on the subject of arms deliveries. He was only against German arms deliveries. “England, France and the USA can have a different policy. Instead of weapons, we should deliver humanitarian aid in the same way,” he said, referring to German history. "The worst war in human history started in Germany, so we can no longer earn money from weapons."

Nouripour, who was also only connected, shook his head violently again and again before he could contradict Gysi. "I'm really upset about what Gysi says. The systems that we deliver save human lives,” said the Greens chairman, who now spoke plainly. “They evade responsibility and are a distraction. But we can't just say that we don't want to anymore, because that's exactly Putin's game."

Peter Neumann warned against making things too easy for yourself in the debate. “The idea that Putin will lose and be punished is opposed to the fact that we are essentially at war with Russia and Russia can continue to escalate. At the end of the spiral of escalation could be the use of tactical nuclear weapons.” The situation is complex and every step must be carefully considered.

"Politically, it makes no sense for the Russian leadership to use nuclear weapons," Margarete Klein believed. “Breaking a taboo like this would distance those who still tacitly support Russia. Right now it's playing on fear to undermine our support for Ukraine."

Illner tried again and again to lure the jittery-looking Gysi out of the reserve: "The left has called for demonstrations. Do you not care about the fate of the Ukrainians, the main thing is that gas will be cheap again?”. But the former Left Party leader did not allow himself to be provoked and claimed that social protests were appropriate and should not be left to the AfD. "It's about people not freezing in winter."

At the end of the program it was still about the danger of sabotage and cyber attacks in Germany and Europe. How vulnerable is the infrastructure in Germany? "The Russian leadership is doing a lot to ensure that we are hit," Nouripour was certain. "It's about spreading uncertainty and undermining the public's trust in our institutions."

He called for more investment to better protect critical infrastructure in Germany. "Federal and state governments need to be better interlinked and we need more police and better disaster protection." However, Ben Hodges had the final word with an idiosyncratic remark: "Political leaders must address their population as if they were talking to adults, so that country is better prepared.”

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