Germans are spending a record amount on vacation – the industry is still worried

Hardly any other industry has groaned as much under the economic consequences of the corona pandemic as tour operators. Without emergency aid from the federal government, there would have been a wave of bankruptcies among travel agencies, and the survival of market leader TUI would have been in doubt. Those days are over.

Shortly before the International Tourism Exchange in Berlin (ITB), the largest travel fair in the world, which starts next Tuesday, market observers are reporting a return to old strength: the number of holidaymakers last year rose by eleven percent compared to the previous year and is now just under 53 million just below the record year 2019. At that time 55 million went on vacation.

In business terms, things are going even better than these figures alone would suggest: With 78.6 billion euros, holidaymakers from Germany spent more money last year than at any time in the past 20 years. With an average of 101 euros per person and day, the travelers were even more generous than in the previous record year 2019. "Almost back to the way it was before the pandemic" is the conclusion of the expert Ulf Sonntag from the Research Association for Holidays and Travel (FUR), who used the results of the " Reiseanalyse 2023“.

Egypt reappears for the first time on the list of the ten most popular destinations, followed by Poland and the Netherlands. The top three places are again occupied by Spain, Italy and Turkey. However, 27 percent of all vacationers stayed in Germany. 5.3 percent went to Bavaria, closely followed by Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein.

In line with the social trend, more and more people are choosing and paying online: The proportion of online bookings exceeded the 50 percent mark for the first time, in 2019 it was only 44 percent.

Nevertheless, the prospects for the travel industry are not untroubled. Concerns revolve around one word: inflation. Long-distance trips in particular will become more expensive this year due to the rise in fuel prices. The effect hits the Asia route the most, because the planes have to accept significant detours due to the closed airspace over Russia and Ukraine.

But economic worries are not limited to that. "Low earners are coming under pressure from the price increases," says the Reiseanalyse - and that applies to all travel destinations. Because low-income households with an income of less than 2000 euros a month now spend almost ten percent of their net household income on vacation. "There's not much room for improvement," tourism researcher Sunday warns of the impact of continued inflation.

For the industry, this is a significant part of the market. According to the researchers, 13 percent of the bookers can be assigned to the "price-focused" category: For them, it is particularly important that the holiday is cheap. Beyond the hard "Geiz- ist-geil" books, 55 percent of buyers are at least "price-oriented", which means that money definitely plays a role.

Only 31 percent of buyers base their booking behavior primarily on the quality of the offer because they can afford it. The proportion of agreed luxury vacationers is two percent.

However, the authors of the Reiseanalyse stress that it is difficult to predict how many hard-calculating households will forego vacations this year because of inflation. More than 7000 representative selected consumers have been surveyed regularly for more than 50 years.

This year, half of those surveyed assessed the general economic situation as worse. In 2022, economic pessimism was even less widespread, with a value of less than 40 percent. For themselves, 29 percent of those surveyed fear a deterioration in their financial situation. In January 2022 it was only 18 percent.

"After the record values ​​for 2022, things are looking a little more subdued for 2023," says the travel analysis: 66 percent of those surveyed say that they will have enough time for vacation, and 54 percent each expressly have enough money and want to go on vacation.

"That means that confidence in one's own possibilities has fallen noticeably compared to the previous year, especially when it comes to money," the researchers conclude. "The actual holiday plans are very good in view of the gloomy economic assessments," judges project manager Sonntag.

The ITB Berlin 2023 will take place for the first time as a pure trade fair under the motto "Open for Change" from Tuesday to Thursday, March 7th to 9th. Private visitors are not admitted to the halls under the Berlin radio tower. The ITB has been the leading trade fair for the global travel industry since 1966.

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