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The operators of the gas storage facilities in Germany are optimistic about the coming months: the country will "get through the winter well," they said on Friday in Berlin. Theoretically, gas shortages "cannot yet be completely ruled out" - but given the current weather forecasts, such shortages are "extremely unlikely".
The storage tanks could also be "extensively" filled for the coming winter. This is primarily dependent on LNG imports to Europe.
The currently 14 storage operators are united in the Energy Storage Initiative (Ines). According to their own statements, they represent over 90 percent of German gas storage capacities and are currently also developing underground hydrogen storage facilities.
Ines calculated three scenarios for the gas supply this winter and next – the first scenario is based on “normal” temperatures like in winter 2016 in Europe, the second “warm” temperatures like in 2020 and the third “cold” like in winter 2010. The basis is the filling levels on November 1st – when the storage tanks were 99 percent full.
With warm temperatures – plus 4.5 degrees Celsius as a monthly average in January – the fill level in March would be 57 percent; at cold temperatures - minus 4.6 degrees Celsius - it would be almost zero by the end of January. The target set by the government for a filling level of 40 percent by February is correspondingly “challenging” in cold temperatures, explained Ines.
With a view to the next winter of 2023/24, the initiative is making further assumptions: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) will then be available to the EU internal market "on a large scale" - the operators also refer to the new LNG terminals that are currently being built in Germany and are scheduled to go into operation in January.
According to the model calculation, there is also gas from France and via the Baltic Pipe from Norway – and also some from Russia, namely via Ukraine, Turkey and Lithuania. Another assumption is that consumption has already fallen considerably this year, regardless of the temperature.
According to Ines, the filling of the reservoirs before the next winter depends above all on the filling levels that occur after this winter. "Achieving the filling targets (85 percent in October and 95 percent in November) is quite possible."
