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Everything you should know about the Midterms

In the USA, more precisely in its 50 states.

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Everything you should know about the Midterms

In the USA, more precisely in its 50 states. Each state sends two senators to Washington (although not all are eligible for election) and representatives, in relation to the size of the population. In Alaska and Wyoming, for example, only one congressman is elected, in California 52 representatives. Local elections are held in the capital Washington and Puerto Rico, both of which have no vote in Congress.

The House of Representatives (first chamber of Congress, 435 voting representatives), one-third of the Senate (second chamber of Congress, 34 senators), governors in 36 of the 50 states. In addition, the state legislatures, similar to the German state parliaments. In some states, interior and justice ministers are directly elected, and there are also mayors, district administrators, council members or police chiefs. The election process is in the hands of the states. The United States has no such thing as a German Federal Returning Officer.

Which party will have the majority in the House of Representatives? And in the Senate? So far, the Democrats have dominated both chambers – with narrow majorities. The Senate has 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans each. In the event of a stalemate, Vice President Kamala Harris has the casting vote. The House of Representatives consists of 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans. If the Democrats can hold a majority in a chamber, that would be a win for them.

Inflation - many citizens respond to election rallies when asked about the most important issue for them. Prices in the USA are currently rising by a good eight percent, less steeply than in Germany and Europe, but still noticeable. This applies above all to the price of petrol, which is more relevant in the USA (because of the large distances and often voluminous cars) than in Germany. It is higher than before the Ukraine war but below its June 2022 high.

Crime is another issue. In the summer, the Democrats hoped to be able to win votes with their position for a liberal abortion law. After the Supreme Court's decision, which leaves abortion rights to the states, the momentum seems to have fizzled out. Supporters of the Democrats also often see their vote as a vote for democracy – and against authoritarianism à la Trump.

Extremely variable depending on the state. There is no uniformity, as mentioned, no federal returning officer or the like. In Georgia, for example, the first polling stations ("early voting") opened three weeks ago. Many states have mail-in voting options. Most of the votes will be cast on this Tuesday, the actual election day. It is a working day, not a holiday. Democrats would like to make Election Day a day off to allow more people to vote. The Republicans prevent that.

In Germany, seven parties sit in the Bundestag. The US is effectively a two-party country. The same party has ruled in large parts of the country for decades. Many Americans don't vote because they don't see a power option for their party or because they don't believe in either party. Of the races up for grabs in 34 states, only four or five are exciting: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, so far Republican. Georgia and Nevada, hitherto Democratic. Should Arizona, where the Democrat and ex-astronaut Mark Kelly has been a senator so far, be on the brink?

If the Republicans win just one more senator (and the Democrats don't win another seat) – then Joe Biden's majority in the Senate is passé. The fact that the Democrats will lose their majority in the House of Representatives is almost a given - because of Biden's low popularity, but also because that is almost normal: In the last 22 midterm elections, the president's party had an average of 28 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate lost.

The midterms are a kind of interim report for the president. Biden's poll numbers are studied daily in the White House. Only around 43 percent are satisfied with their work, around 54 percent are dissatisfied. These numbers point to a bitter defeat in the elections. If Biden loses the majority in the House of Representatives, the Republicans have de facto financial sovereignty. Budgetary power rests with Congress. The committee of inquiry on January 6, 2021 should be dissolved immediately.

Some Republicans are threatening a committee to look into Biden's son Hunter's business dealings. It is quite possible that even votes for impeachment against Biden will grow louder (a majority for this is not in sight). If Biden loses the majority in the Senate, he could no longer simply have high and highest judges confirmed. Biden would then be, as they say in the US, a lame duck.

Donald Trump will attribute Republican success to himself (rather than to the candidates who were on the ballot). In the last few days, numerous rallies were still on his agenda. It is quite possible that Trump will quickly declare himself the 2024 presidential candidate after the election. Formally, he would then only be a candidate for the Republican presidential candidacy in 2024. But can anyone dispute his candidacy?

Florida's Republican governor Ron DeSantis, whose re-election is considered certain, is also aiming for the White House. Would he run against Trump? That would be a sensation in the Trump-dominated party. Or would DeSantis be content with running for vice president?

Many eyes are turning to Arizona, where Kari Lake has a good chance of running for governor. The ex-TV presenter is a supporter of Trump and has repeatedly denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. She threatens: "What happened in 2020 will not happen in 2024 with Kari Lake as governor." Background: The incumbent governor, Republican Doug Ducey, resisted calls from the Trump camp to refuse to certify the Arizona election result.

That is in the hands of the respective states. In Arizona, a right-wing Republican loyal to Trump also wants to become Secretary of State – and thus an election supervisor – who also doubts the outcome of the 2020 election. Arizona voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Good question. In any case, only on November 9, Central European Time (CET). The first (few) polling stations close at midnight CET. Georgia at 1 a.m. ET, Pennsylvania at 2 a.m., Wisconsin at 3 a.m., Nevada at 4 a.m. When the outcome is close, it can take days to get individual – and relevant – results.

As a reminder, the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was only clear four days later. A long counting process, like 2020, could be ahead in Pennsylvania.

In Georgia it is even conceivable that a run-off election in December will only clarify things - and that the future majority in the Senate will be in limbo for weeks. The background: Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and Republican Herschel Walker are neck and neck in the polls. But there is a third, libertarian candidate.

Although he has no chance, it could mean that neither Warnock nor Walker get 50 percent of the votes. But that is exactly what the election law in Georgia requires. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes on November 8th, there will be a runoff on December 6th. Only then can it possibly be clarified which party will dominate the Senate in the future.

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