German car manufacturers will be absent when the “Mondial de l’Auto” trade fair starts again next week in Paris after the Corona break: Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz will not be making an appearance in the halls – they obviously do not expect any success from this. The Chinese take the place of the Germans between Renault and Peugeot.
You can see the appearance as a symbol: brands like BYD, Great Wall and Nio will soon be part of the street scene in Europe. After their first attempt in 2005 failed due to devastating crash test results, the Chinese manufacturers are now coming up with electric cars that are technically on par with Western models.
The management consultancy Strategy
The consultants arrive at this value in the “upside” scenario, assuming that the new providers will enter the market with low prices and contracts with fleet operators. BYD has just signed a contract for 100,000 vehicles with the car rental company Sixt.
In the "basic" scenario, the consultants assume 5.1 percent - for purely Chinese brands. Chinese-owned manufacturers such as Lotus, Volvo or Polestar are not included.
Of course, the start in Europe could also go wrong again. But according to the forecast, it won't be as bad as in 2005. The "downside" scenario sees a market share of 3.8 percent.
This occurs when there are "difficulties with customer acceptance", EU import restrictions and aggressive resistance from local manufacturers.