“Alarming trend” – recognition of foreign qualifications well below target

Although the economy is dependent on skilled workers from abroad, the number of recognized foreign professional qualifications is below the level before the Corona crisis. There were 46,900 in 2021, as new figures from the Federal Statistical Office show. This corresponds to an increase of five percent compared to the previous year.

In view of the at least 350,000 vacancies that require a qualification, only every seventh position could be filled with a foreign specialist, according to the German Economic Institute (IW).

"The trend is alarming," says IW economist Nora Rohr. Because between 2016 and 2019, the Federal Statistical Office reported double-digit growth rates in the recognition of foreign qualifications from year to year, in 2019 the increase was even 24 percent. In order to fill the gap in the shortage of occupations, the traffic light government puts the number of skilled workers from abroad who are to fill positions at 400,000 - per year.

The refugee movement triggered by the Russian attack on Ukraine is also having an impact on the labor market. More and more job advertisements are aimed at Ukrainian and Russian-speaking applicants.

This is shown by a job market evaluation by the Berlin market research company Index Research, which is exclusively available to WELT AM SONNTAG. In the period from the beginning of January to the end of August this year, 10,213 companies explicitly addressed this target group with a total of 57,938 job advertisements.

A significant increase was recorded in the months shortly after the start of the war in spring. While in February 1566 companies were still looking for Ukrainian and Russian-speaking applicants in 4258 advertisements, in March there were already 1699 companies with 8880 advertisements. 203 print media, 272 online job exchanges, around 180,000 company websites and the job portal of the Federal Employment Agency were analyzed for the study.

"The challenges are great, but we are on the right track with the integration of the refugees," said Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) to this newspaper last month. According to Heil, more and more refugees are finding work or taking part in language courses. However, the balance sheet shows a mixed picture more than six months after the start of the flight movement. The latest data available from the Federal Employment Agency on this is from June.

Accordingly, a total of 95,000 Ukrainian employees subject to social security contributions were counted; that was an increase of 38,000 people since the beginning of the war. In August, the authority counted "according to preliminary and unextrapolated information, 546,000 Ukrainian citizens in basic security for jobseekers".

Among them are "355,000 people of working age (employable beneficiaries) and 191,000 non-employable beneficiaries (usually children)".

Basically, the job advertisements determined by Index are aimed at two different target groups. The larger part can be attributed to the native speakers, i.e. refugees from Ukraine or Russia itself. The smaller target group are Germans who are wanted in refugee aid. For example in government offices, childcare or social work.

Russian or Ukrainian-speaking applicants are particularly sought after in the health and social services (9072 advertisements). But demand is also high in the hospitality industry (2482 ads).

Many of the women who have fled have completed training or studies in the healthcare sector. The problem: the qualifications are often not recognized at all or only slowly. Many women therefore work below their qualifications in this industry.

Because regulated employment relationships are still the exception rather than the rule due to the sluggish recognition process, many of the refugees from Ukraine are dependent on social assistance - and on the private commitment of the population.

In general, the willingness of Germans to help the refugees from Ukraine is still very high. According to a study by the German Center for Integration and Migration Research, 58 percent of people in Germany can imagine donating money to refugees from Ukraine.

However, the survey also shows that willingness to help has decreased in recent months. In March, a few weeks after the outbreak of war, 69 percent of those surveyed said they could imagine donating money. 58 percent were considering volunteering and 27 percent were willing to volunteer.

In view of the labor shortage, the total number of jobs available throughout Germany is forecast to continue to grow. Minister of Labor Heil wants to present a reform of the immigration law in the fall. Accordingly, there should be fewer hurdles for workers from abroad.

But the crisis is also leaving its mark on the labor market. The momentum has weakened somewhat because companies have to pay more attention to their costs in view of the high prices. According to a new labor market study by the personnel service provider ManpowerGroup, for which 1,020 companies in Germany were surveyed, expectations are somewhat more restrained than they were a month or a year ago.

The net employment outlook (NBA) – after deduction of the usual seasonal fluctuations – is a plus of 20 percent overall. A high value - however, this corresponds to a decline of eight percentage points compared to the same period last year and three percentage points compared to the previous quarter.

Non-profit organizations (up 50 percent) and the banking, finance, insurance and real estate industries (up 43 percent) show the strongest demand for new employees. According to ManpowerGroup data, the most hesitant sectors are primary production (up 11 percent) and education, health, social affairs and administration (up 18 percent).