A million grenades for Ukraine - This plan is a turning point for the EU

The two figures illustrate the brutality of the war. And the balance of power on the battlefields. Russian soldiers fire more than 20,000 shells from their howitzers every day. At least. The Ukrainian army - forced to exercise restraint because many of its arms factories and ammunition depots are in ruins - fires around 2,000. That's ten times less. This is how officials of the EU Commission in Brussels calculate it.

Now the EU wants to increase Ukraine's firepower. It plans to supply the country with one million grenades over the next 12 months. That was decided by the foreign and defense ministers of the member states on Monday afternoon. First of all, the countries should hand over projectiles from their stocks and be compensated with EU funds. One billion euros are available for this. With another billion, the EU is planning the joint procurement of new ammunition for the first time in its history.

It means a turning point: The EU - founded as a peace project - is willing to buy weapons and deliver them to a state at war. "We are breaking new ground with this," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Brussels. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in the Belgian capital: "Ukraine still needs our support." It is important to supply the country with ammunition quickly. And Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur triumphantly said: "Where there's a will, there's a way."

All of these are beautiful words. But will the EU's plans actually change the balance of power on Ukraine's battlefields? Little suggests that.

Projectiles with a caliber of 155 millimeters are to be delivered, so-called "dumb bombs", which cannot be guided by GPS or laser. Weapons for a large battle of materials, cost per piece: around 3000 euros. The planned amount – the one million – sounds like a lot. But anyone who speaks to military experts hears sobering forecasts: they say it will last three months, maybe a little longer.

Not good prospects for Ukraine. It took the EU weeks to negotiate the current deal. There was resistance everywhere. Some states, such as Greece, only wanted to give up a few shells, probably out of concern that the arsenal might be used against Turkey. Others feared that things would get out of hand financially. It is difficult to imagine that the EU countries will soon agree on further large deliveries. What Europe is planning, it seems, is an example of "too little, too late": it's too little and too late.

It is also unclear where the new ammunition that Europe wants to buy together is supposed to come from. To date, around 300,000 155 caliber bullets have been produced on the continent each year by 15 manufacturers in eleven countries. You are simply not prepared for a conflict in which two armies shell each other with shells almost around the clock for months.

Joint procurement should help. It's an idea reminiscent of the Corona era, when the EU came together to buy vaccines. The approach, according to the idea, would have advantages for all sides. The companies did not receive many separate orders from individual countries, but only a few large orders - which would mean less bureaucracy and more planning security for them. And the EU could negotiate better prices for such a bulk order.

Is this perhaps even a model for the future? The beginning of a true European security policy? Another step in European integration forced by Vladimir Putin's merciless war?

It doesn't seem to be that far yet. Several EU countries, including Germany, have concerns. Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated last week that he prefers a national approach. Germany is ready, he said in his government statement in the Bundestag, "to open up procurement projects to other member states."

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who prepared the ammunition deal, went into detail on Monday in Brussels. The projectiles, he said, would not necessarily have to be procured from the European Defense Agency EDA, as he initially planned. An initiative led by a member state is also conceivable. "If Germany has an opportunity to organize this," said Borrell, "it cannot be ruled out."

"Kick-off" is WELT's daily news podcast. The most important topic analyzed by WELT editors and the dates of the day. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, among others, or directly via RSS feed.