The Drama is heading for a climax. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May want to let the British Parliament on the withdrawal of the contract vote, on the London and Brussels have agreed. Whether the head of government a majority, is unclear. If no, is looming on the 29. In March, an outlet without a contract.
However, even if the members are waving the agreement, the Brexit-Drama is not complete. Quite the contrary: It may be after the arduous negotiations of the past two years, hard to imagine, but the most difficult talks between the UK and the EU. Of The Overview.
What happens to the 29. March?
The British and the EU Parliament must approve the exit agreement. In London, many Brexit enthusiasts reject in Mays Conservative party to the contract. They complain that the government had made too many concessions. May should lose because of this rebel of the vote, could parliamentarians to submit their own proposals as to how it should proceed. Some would demand a second referendum, some other Form of Brexit . However, none of these ideas, a majority is in sight.
Theresa May in an Interview with the BBC: The British Prime Minister speaks out against a second Referendum. Video: Reuters
this Is clarified, could, May submit the contract again. The Alternative would exit without a contract. So a disorderly Brexit will prevent the vast majority of parliamentarians across all parties. The head of government may ask Brussels to move the outlet, if you lose the second vote. Postponement until mid-may, up to the date of the European elections, should not be a big Problem.
What is the Backstop?
That Theresa May is unlikely to be able to bring the Brexit Deal on Tuesday by the Parliament, is mainly due to the Backstop clause, a kind of backup mechanism for the island of Ireland. After a Brexit, the Republic of Ireland will belong to the EU, Northern Ireland. It is an external border of the EU. However, a visible border and customs controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could provoke in the former civil war region of unrest. This is a concern, the EU and the UK share.
The Backstop ensures, therefore, that the customs controls at the border will be necessary, as the peace Treaty from the year 1998. The agreement States specifically that the UK remains in a customs Union with the European Union and Northern Ireland, to conclude in addition in the European internal market, if it does not succeed, the EU and the UK, in the transition phase after the Brexit a trade agreement.
Why is the vote on the Brexit Deal is a Problem?
and That, in the transition phase after the Brexit negotiate a free trade agreement, is by no means certain (see below). Less ambitious agreements have, in the past much more time than the agreed of just under two, a maximum of four years.
Therefore, the concern of many British member of Parliament that the United Kingdom, according to the Brexit would be for a very long time in a customs Union with the European Union. The British would not get their sovereignty in trade policy back, could close as a member of a customs Union with the EU, no-trade contracts with other States. Brexit-the champion in Mays party reject the Backstop is strictly. The Brexiteers want to terminate the clause or a guarantee that they will never be activated, or at least limited in time. However, since the EU won't play ball.
What would be the consequences of a Brexit without agreement?
The exit agreement governs the terms and conditions of the separation. It determines, for example, that the UK, the EU, estimated to have to pay 45 billion euros, or directly to the Brexit, a transitional phase begins, until at least the end of 2020, for companies and citizens, almost nothing changes.
Chaos and traffic jams would be the result; the constant supply for factories and super markets would be at risk.
the contract will come into force, would change on Brexit-date very much. Trade across the English channel would then be subject to the rules of the world trade organization WTO, there would be customs duties. Exporters need customs forms to fill out, the truck drivers will be delivered to the ports. However, neither the ports of great Britain on the mainland are prepared to serve as a customs border between the EU and the United Kingdom. Chaos and traffic jams would be the result; the constant supply for factories and super markets would be at risk.
it Needs to come so bad?
it Is clear that it runs on a Brexit without a contract, could London and Brussels to try to prevent collusion and pragmatism of the worst. The British government has already pledged, in the case of a non-Brexit are airlines from the EU in the UK to fly. Customs and bureaucracy at the border, however, are not to be avoided: The WTO forbids its members States to adopt simple tariffs – unless the governments conclude a trade agreement.
New-Banksy-Mural to the Brexit: Dover Europe-Flag-to see from a workers out of hammering a star. Video: Reuters Newsflash
And if all goes well?
the Parliament Approves in London, the exit agreement, must refer the matter to the Deputy again. In this second vote, it is a matter of incorporating the Treaty into UK law. 29. In March, the British then, and the transition phase begins. After the European elections in may, a new EU is to be formed Commission. As soon as this work is able to begin the most difficult part of the Brexit negotiations: the future of relationships. The 584-page outlet contract is not in order, apart from the controversial Backstop clause. This scheme ensures that there is never a customs border controls between the EU member Ireland and the British Northern Ireland will be necessary.
What the aim is?
Together with the Treaty, the EU heads of state and government adopted a non-binding political Declaration on the future of relations. This 36 pages to include the wishes of Brussels and London, which are quite vague and partly incompatible with each other. The British government and the EU intend to conclude during the transition phase of a trade agreement that is significantly more comprehensive than all of the world's existing agreement. Not until the summer of 2020 to succeed, a year and a half before the end of the transition phase, it can be up to 2022 extended.
the conversations Are difficult?
Very. The UK wants to achieve, and that trade across the English channel remains as simple as before: there are no customs forms, no delays in the ports, no checks. The country has almost a third of its food from other EU countries; factories only keep parts for a few hours of production in stock and are dependent on constant supplies from the mainland.
After the spectacle of the past months, it is clear that this dispute is very, very ugly.
Is such a smooth trading is still possible, no customs officer on the intra-Irish border, and the truck out to wave. The Brexit Fans dearly hated Backstop were never in power.
Where is the Problem?
smooth trading so far exists only within the EU. Switzerland and Norway are closely connected to the EU, you enjoy the benefits of a single market-member. And yet the trucks have to stop drivers from these countries on the EU's borders and papers to submit. This would lead to the ports of Dover and Calais to Chaos. At the same time, the British government does not want to control immigration from the EU, Norway and Switzerland. In addition, London wants to be allowed to own commercial treaties, and tariff rates change.
In the talks with Brussels, the British will soon realize that it will not give the best possible access to the EU market, without the painful commitments. Then the government and the Parliament in London have to argue about what is more important: freedom or problem-free trade. After the spectacle of the past months, it is clear that this dispute is very, very ugly. (Editorial Tamedia)
Created: 14.01.2019, 19:34 PM