Why Venezuela's struggle for power is stuck

The Venezuelan army is more on the side of Maduros. The leader of the opposition Guaidó stay only for more strikes and street protests. But without pressure from the outside, the solution seems impossible.

An analysis by Anne-Katrin Mellmann, ARD-Studio, Mexico city

opposition leader Juan Guaidó of the work to the work stoppage called on the day After the failed Rebellion of the 30. April to increase strikes to the pressure on the socialist government. First state to join the staff, and later to all areas.

But the call seemed like a desperate, last idea Guaidós in a deadlocked power struggle. The country is economically on the ground, work and business are worth in the Hyperinflation, the state servant to work because of the frequent power outages already shortened.

The Economist and former industry Minister Víctor Álvarez in the call for a strike attempt Guaidós to consider the state of servants to his side, similar to how he tries it again and again with the army: "The public employees are under the yoke of the Maduro administration," he says. "She threatens you with dismissal or loss of their food rations."

this is Why the Economist believes that a strike was a success. "Those officials, who were with the government do not agree, have abandoned their work," he says. "As long as the private sector does not incur the risk, to participate in a General strike, I can't imagine that there is a larger collection, forcing the army to take a stand."

Ex-industry Minister Víctor Álvarez: "The public employees are under the yoke of the Maduro government."

The army continues to Maduro

The army holds on to power, Nicolas Maduro. Only a handful of simple soldiers has returned this week to the back. After the Parliament Guaidó had made at the end of January to the transitional President, were his hope and goal to move the entire army.

A reason why this is so difficult, the political scientist Benigno Alarcón of the University of Andres Bello in Caracas: "Not accidentally, but quite deliberately the socialist government has changed the command structure of the army," he says. You are no longer operating like a pyramid, today, the army is divided into networks. There are many bosses, each of which is dominant its Region, with its own shops, which were based on corruption, he says. "They enjoy a certain independence, which makes a military coup virtually impossible." The decision had to be made by many. "But that's too complex."

political scientist Alarcón: The socialist government has changed the command structure of the army, he says.

Lopez' exemption has symbolic effect

After all, it is managed Guaidó, the most prominent political prisoners in the country, Leopoldo López, of renegade soldiers from house arrest, free. The symbolic effect was strong: If Lopez, the once main opposition leader and largest adversary Maduros, free to come, are not more closed the ranks of the state makes it perfect. López is now in the middle of Caracas in the Spanish Embassy, and waiting for the change of power. Until then, you can but it will take a lot of time. Maduro is firmly seated in the saddle. Guaidó struggles with new Access to a street protest.

"most of the pressure from the street," says political scientist Alarcón. "So far, he was still not strong enough and did not lead to any result, but without the road Guaidó can achieve anything." As long as the government feel is not seriously threatened, would be to have negotiations wishful thinking. "If the people do not protest, you do not need to negotiate." The greater the pressure on the streets is, the higher the price of the Repression, he says. "The government will not want to pay unconditionally."

Venezuela opposition leader Guaidó relies on strikes.

in the conflict, the Europeans, could Give Alarcón says. The US government is playing the role of "Bad Cop", the "bad COP", and from the vagina.

A dialogue between the warring Camps, however, is still not in sight. Too great was the fear Guaidós is, his followers could blame him, if he continues with Maduro.

Maduro has to negotiate no reason to. He sits on the Levers of Power and can just sit back and watch as his opponent struggles. So Guaidó for the time being, left as a faint hope on the pressure from the street, possible strikes, the division of the army, and that sanctions are forcing the socialist government at some point in the knee.

Venezuela-power battle stuck
Anne-Katrin Mellmann, ARD Mexico City
04.05.2019 16:57 PM

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