What if the Brexit-fail Deal?

this Tuesday, everything depends on the British house of Commons. The members decide what happens to the Brexit-the agreement between the British government and the EU, if it fails or if enough members agree. Then the next Phase could start: the negotiations on a free trade agreement between London and Brussels. Until recently, Theresa May is working to pull the resistive parliamentarians on their side; also, the EU is working to help the agreement of a majority. Because of the respective decision, a long series of – part of – risk-consequences.

An Overview of what could come.

The house of Commons says Yes

That would be the easiest solution, however, is the most currently the unlikely. May need at least 320 votes. If you get the, would have to agree with the European Parliament. The Yes from Strasbourg, is considered to be safe and is expected to take place in February or at the latest in mid-March. At the same time, would have to decide, under the house and many of the laws, to convict the 585 pages of the Treaty in UK law.

it Works up to 29. March, ends on this date, after 46 years, the British membership in the EU. In the Transition period to the end of 2020, hardly anything changes. The Kingdom remains a member of the single market and the customs Union, will lose his right to vote. Then the hardest work begins: the talks on a free trade agreement. In less than two years, such a Deal, to negotiate, is considered by experts as highly ambitious.

If this fails, the UK and the EU meet in July 2020, a decision: Is the transitional period on 31 December. December 2020, extended? That would be a maximum of until the end of 2022; and, if London pays billions more into the EU budget. This Option should not be drawn, would be, what all want to prevent: the controversial Backstop, so those catch-all solution to avoid a noticeable border on the island of Ireland.

At the end of the Negotiations, the desire of all Parties concerned, should be a close partnership of the EU-27 to London. In this scenario, and if no extension of the withdrawal period is needed – the UK is not participating in the European elections at the end of may.

The house of Commons says no

and Then it looks at the moment. May need to address, then, within three session days, so no later than next Monday, with an alternative proposal to the lower house. The deputies, however, in the meantime, even the Heft in the Hand. It is expected that the parliamentarians will vote on Tuesday, but no later than Wednesday of templates from different political corners to explore, where the majorities are. Should the vote rather few deputies are against the Treaty, so under a hundred, so May could try in Brussels for negotiating further concessions. But, as the think tank "Institute for Government" States: If May has no idea what she wants, alternatively, will be the most difficult.

On a clear message to EU diplomats have long been waiting and getting impatient. "London needs to tell us what's coming next," says one to the question of how it is to go to a No in the lower house. A displacement of the exit date is discounted in many major cities already – as long as this happens only until July and the UK in the European elections. A corresponding request of the lower house would have to agree to all of the remaining EU member States. So far, the EU-27 closed – whether this remains the case, however, is open. This would further Brexit special summits, the heads of state and heads of government arrive, probably reluctantly, to the Chaos of a hard Brexit avert. "We had in November, a special summit, in order to prevent that, we find ourselves precisely in this position again," sighs one EU Diplomat. The perplexity as to how to help May,, because of course all know, in Brussels, the forecasts for the vote this Tuesday.

Therefore, would rather more members against May, namely up to 200. Then, the present draft Treaty would be finished politically. Groups of members preparing for this case for months, sometimes across party lines. As a Signal of what direction might take the house of Commons, a vote last week, the government suggests, not a No Deal, to pursue an exit without contract,. On Monday, conservative MP Nick Boles put forward a proposal that the chairmen of all the parliamentary Committee put together, and within three weeks, an alternative schedule would work out that the Parliament could vote.

This proposal is one of several that are referred to in the British press as a "Coup" by the Parliament and as a disempowerment of the government. Therefore, the house would develop, contrary to traditional practice, a Deal that May return to Brussels would have to go.

This would be a scenario in order to avoid the EU-27: It would lead to renegotiations over the Backstop. It is speculated on two options. Brussels could assure that the free trade agreement with London until the end of 2021. The concern of the Brexiteers to be forever to the EU bound, would at least be taken seriously. It is also conceivable to limit the Backstop but time to call it a date. This requirement May would agree with the EU but only if the Irish government accepts it – Dublin-see the Backstop as a safety guarantee for the still fragile peace in Northern Ireland. The unpredictability of the British policy makes such a concession, but rather unlikely.

What the hardliners want to

In the London Parliament are circulating at present, three concepts for the Brexit . Hardliners argue the outlet for the contract. On Monday, the Ex-foreign Minister, Boris Johnson and the former Brexit-Minister David Davies and Dominic Raab asked the deputies again, a No Deal to strive for, in order for the UK to stay, no "colony of the EU". A second group wants a renegotiation with Brussels on a so-called Norway-Plus agreement. Norway participates in the single market, but is a member of the customs Union. With such a solution would be to bind the Kingdom permanently close to the EU, but would leak out.

A second Referendum?

the third variant is a law, the Parliament sets out the procedure for a second Brexit Referendum. The preparations could take about a year and a half.

According to the withdrawal deadline should be extended to the result of the referendum, to wait. In order to reach your main goal to avoid the Chaos of a hard-Brexit, the EU-27, well-prepared, even if it will break now for the head. If the United Kingdom on the 1. July 2019, the day that the newly elected EU Parliament, to the Union, it would have to organise a European election. Other things to worry about in front of a scenario that British members of Parliament vote on the head of the next Commission – and weeks later departure. It is also conceivable to make the British "members of the second class" – similar to the Status of parliamentarians from countries that joined in the course of a legislative period the EU.

for This purpose, unanimity would be required. Like the questions of a second referendum would be worded is as open as the question of whether a majority in favour of remaining votes in the EU or the Deal would prefer the May.

censure

their return to the negotiating table would, however, flat if you would be trusted by a no-confidence vote toppled. The chief of the opposition Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, reserves, and such to contribute, if May fail on Tuesday with a Bang. He hopes, so new elections to enforce. However, the prospects of success of a failure of trust vote is considered low, because a lot of Tories want to make with May more to risk than a socialist government.

For this case, no one expected serious withdrawal Mays. A question of Trust in the own group, has won it in December.

elections

Should there be new elections would have to take the election campaign after a preparatory phase, a minimum of 25 days. For the question of how the Brexit should look like, would be won for the time being little. 29. March as Austrittstag is defined by law. Labour believe that a better Treaty with Brussels to negotiate. This would not have time until the end of March.

Brexit cancelled

the Brexit would be canceled only if a majority of the British people to decide in a second Referendum differently. What means in English "to revoke article 50" to stop the exit process, but it is quite possible: The European court of justice has ruled that London could get out of the Brexit, without asking the EU's permission.

A second referendum is increasingly popular with Brexit opponents, more and more members seem to heat up. The former Tory Prime Minister John Major, the mayor of London, Sadiq Kahn and Ex-Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair anyway.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 14.01.2019, 23:23 PM