Washington Correspondent for
The "experts" have never been as much deceived. Contrary to their expectations, the u.s. economy not only has not lost some 8 million jobs, but it created 2.5 million last month. As for the unemployment rate, far from a jump of 14.7 % in April to 20 % in may, as forecast by the economists, it fell back to 13.3 %.read also : "employment, employment, employment!"
The first effects of the déconfinement in many american States may have been more favourable than expected. This validates the incredible optimism of Wall Street for a month. It has propelled stock indexes to more than 40% increase from their lowest point to the end of march.
Donald Trump did not fail to congratulate himself on these statistics in an impromptu conference. He referred to a recovery better than a " V-shaped ", such as "a rocket" and has predicted a prosperous economic future for the fall, when Americans are called to the polls.
The thesis that the worst of the crisis is past and strengthened by the employment figures. Even if it remains obvious that America is still in recession, the level of unemployment remains historically catastrophic, that the claims of the unemployed are still increasing and that the risk of a new wave of job cuts is not rejected.
signs of a recovery on the demand and supply appear well for a few days. It is possible, however, that the disorders occasioned by the death of George Floyd of suites of police violence end may slow down the recovery of the activity in June. But whether the demand for real estate loans, the contraction was less pronounced in the services and industry or of the recovery in air transport, a trend relatively reassuring draw. If it is confirmed, the return to growth in the third quarter is possible.