In a year, the Americans choose their President. And no one can say today whether Donald Trump on the 3. November 2020 will win a second term. A year is a long time in politics. Maybe the President can not only survive, Yes, the ongoing impeachment proceedings against all expectations, however. Or maybe he's unheard of doing at some point but still something so that even those die-hard supporters turn away from him, the all have ignored the Outrageous, he's done so far, and has said, or even prima found. Or maybe the Democrats agree on a great candidate or such a wonderful candidate that Trump loses, the choice is easy. All of this is possible. Will it happen?
Unfortunately, probably not. You can find it good or bad, but you should be under no illusions: The likelihood that Donald Trump will remain after the election in November 2020 and for a further four years as President of the United States, according to the latest greater than that he will be voted out.
But so could now read a shocked objection does not Trump the historically unpopular? Yes, he is. The surveys vary slightly, but on average, only 43 percent of Americans have a good opinion of your President. During his three years in office, Trump never got over the 50 percent mark. In other words: He had at no time a majority of his countrymen behind.
Better survey values> as previously
But, as another counter-argument is that the Democrats have this year, not a better candidate? Not the ever-unpopular Hillary Clinton, but capable, charismatic candidates: Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden , Bernie Sanders? Yes, you have. Even a dozen candidates. And there are parts of the country, in which these people and their ideas meet with great approval. However, one may doubt that these are those parts in which the election will be decided.
Trump has to shout in the election campaign, only "socialism" and "the wall" and "take away the guns". And he will come so far.
Because, as always, the battle for the White house will not be beaten in California or New York, but in a handful of States in between, which are far less liberal. People do not swarm there, so much for the left, Revolution, the promise of Warren or Sanders. For their plans – sound to a national health insurance for all, free universities, the adoption of all student loans, reparations for Blacks in America – first of all, that you will probably have to pay deeds for other people.
These voters also have a quite different opinion than the Democrats as to whether an illegal crossing of the border to be not a criminal Offence, and the possession of AR-15 should be banned assault rifles. Trump needs to scream in the election campaign, only "socialism" and "the wall" and "take away the guns". And he will come so far.
Joe Biden knows that. He sees, as the party slides to the left, and he tried not mitzurutschen. And maybe he would be the perfect candidate against Trump, if he would, to put it politely – twenty years younger than the almost 77 years, which he is. But as it looks currently, at least Biden this year is the year of the Joe.
But, as a last, desperate Protest might be, the Americans, Trump is not full? The lies, the racist incitement, Chaos, and the eternal Drama that revolves only around him? You don't have enough of a President that scared the country and splits and the democratic institutions of grinds? His tirades against immigrants, like in the summer in El Paso, a mass murderer inspired? Yes, for a long time. And if you are an Optimist, you can draw a little hope.
When the Americans see the election next year as a Referendum on the destructive character of your President, if you don't care about what plan the Democrats, or how well the economy is going, because at the 3. November 2020 America's soul is at stake – then Donald Trump loses, maybe.
This, of course, the citizens for a moment need to their heads out of the trenches can lift. And just can't allow that to Trump. His defense strategy is: more lies, more propaganda, don't pause for breath. The American society is broken. But that doesn't take care of Donald Trump, as long as he wins.
Podcast "USA: decision-2020"
Listen to the latest episode of the podcast "decision-making in 2020" with a United States correspondent, Alan Cassidy, Editor-in-Philipp Loser on Spotify or on iTunes.
Created: 04.11.2019, 06:08 PM