Post a Comment Print Share on Facebook
Featured Krimi Politik Karriere Newsteam Ukraine

To request to defer: The four Brexit scenarios

The British Prime Minister, Theresa May wants to exit from the EU in your country for three months to postpone. With your proposal you are likely to collect in

- 9 reads.

To request to defer: The four Brexit scenarios

The British Prime Minister, Theresa May wants to exit from the EU in your country for three months to postpone. With your proposal you are likely to collect in the Brussels collection. Conceivable, at least, four scenarios and a Wealth of different developments within these kinds of cases are now. An Overview.

No extension

A shift in the for the 29. March planned outlet to be agreed by all 27 EU partners. On Thursday and Friday, the heads of state advice and the heads of government of the EU on the British request. Actually, Jun wanted to establish the maximum pressure to get in the last Minute, an agreement to the negotiated agreement with the EU Exit. Parliament speaker John Bercow's built-in your but the possibility of the same Treaty to the vote again.

In London since then, a lot uncertain. Even a fall Mays and political Chaos in the United Kingdom.

The British President of Parliament, Bercow has said the Prime Minister May, in order to provide the Brexit Treaty to the vote again.

Some of the EU Partner plan, apparently, an extension of the deadline to reject. The Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen pointed out that in several States of the displeasure with the actions of the British waxes. It is criticized that the British side can't always say exactly what you really want. The but it is considered as a prerequisite for a shift.

An unregulated Brexit or No Deal is likely to have, according to the assessment of many economists for the UK dramatic consequences, and also for the EU painful fail. The No-Deal is now unlikely, because the had house, however, pronounced. Glowing Brexit advocates within the conservative Tory party May have a hope yet.

extension to

From an internal EU assessment, present the news Agency dpa, stating that a Brexit-shift without the participation in the European elections, only up to 23. May is possible. From the point of view of the Commission, only two options for the delay are, therefore, useful: a brief, "technical extension" to 23. May, without participation in the European election, or a "long extension" until at least the end of 2019, with the Option of shortening, if a solution is found.

A short shift is considered to stem relatively easy. The Problem: Hardly anyone in the EU is assumed that a short would also solve the hesitation, the political Blockade on the island. The time, however, could be used to prepare for a "No Deal"-exit.

On 23. May European elections. A non-participation, the British could have serious consequences, if you're still in the EU.

The Sep is now applied for extension until the end of June, is already tricky, because the date is after the European elections at the end of may. While some of the lawyers say that the decisive day the Together of the new Parliament on 2. July was, but other lawyers see it differently. In the worst case, could be the Constitution of the new Parliament illegal and after the election, the determination of the new EU Commission and the EU budgetary framework to endanger, - stated in the Commission paper.

EU governments would have to deal with any such extension, so the risk of a challenge to the European elections. EU citizens in the UK or British in the Rest of the EU could sue to participate. In addition, the entire Europe would be charged to the election campaign by the British is a Problem.

Clear extension

EU Council President Donald Tusk had brought due to the difficult formation of opinion on the island, a much longer shift in the conversation - for at least a year or possibly even longer. Other EU politicians demand that the Kingdom should take adequate time to reconsider his Brexit strategy. May rejects, however, that: "As Prime Minister I am not ready to face the Brexit on the 30. June to delay," she said in the house of Commons. The Statement was interpreted by British media as a reference to your resignation, should be a longer delay of the EU-exit is inevitable.

EU Council President Tusk holds a long shift is conceivable.

Conceivable in the case of a significant extension of the government in London could deter in this time, a second Referendum or new elections. However, the house of Commons a second Referendum, such as the unregulated Brexit has also rejected in a legally non-binding vote. The Labour Opposition wants the whereabouts of the country in the customs Union and, in addition, a closer alignment with the EU. Many diplomats in Brussels, this proposal is not for an ideal conception of the future relations with the UK.

Easily the significant extension for a number of reasons, would not enforce. The British government is concerned that during a long shift, the country is still a full-fledged EU member and the EU negotiations on the future of relations could lead. In addition, the UK could not conclude trade agreements with third countries, the right has only the EU-Commission.

For the EU, this solution would be also problematic, because the UK would have to participate in a longer in the European elections. Possibly the British would say, even about the next EU Commission President, though the country wants to escape.


The British government could pull the article 50 at the end of back - also, for example, on 28. March. Because that is after the judgment of the European court of justice is possible at any time and is not subject to approval of the EU-27. Thereafter, the government would have to decide whether it starts a discharge process or may be on a EU waived the outlet. Possible to the above-mentioned new elections, or a second Referendum would be the precursors in this scenario.

Your Name
Post a Comment
Characters Left:
Your comment has been forwarded to the administrator for approval.×
Warning! Will constitute a criminal offense, illegal, threatening, offensive, insulting and swearing, derogatory, defamatory, vulgar, pornographic, indecent, personality rights, damaging or similar nature in the nature of all kinds of financial content, legal, criminal and administrative responsibility for the content of the sender member / members are belong.