in 2018, not a good year for the pension funds and their Insured persons. Pension Fund expert Roger Baumann of the consulting company C-alm estimates that the pension funds finish the year with a Minus of 3 to 4 percent. The poor Performance of the pension funds in an uncomfortable Situation, because you must pay interest on the pension funds of workers this year to at least 1 percent. Even though you have lost money, you need to RUB the accounts of the Insured money. As a result, your coverage drops.
will Not help Insured, to cover the resulting deficit: A part of the older working population will soon be retired. Ultimately, the remaining Assets must close the gap. And those are not occurred yet in the pension Fund.
The double redistribution
So will not only between the acquisition and the pensioners money in occupational Pension redistributed, but also among the workers themselves. "This redistribution effect is mentioned in the pension discussion and also impossible to quantify," says Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann, a Professor at the Institute for financial services the University of Lucerne.
she has estimated the effect together with Heinz Zimmermann, Professor at the centre for Economic research at the University of Basel, for the year of 2016, and comes on a hefty amount: 6 billion Swiss francs. He is so high, because the sentence, to make the pension funds, the pension capital, the acquisition had to at least pay interest, was higher than the rate of return that you could earn without risk. This emerges from a study of what created the two researchers on behalf of the Swiss pension Fund Association.
a Further 6 billion were reallocated to 2016, from the employed to the retired; the only way the pension funds were able to pay, despite low interest rates, the full pensions. The entire redistribution summed up in 2016 due to the capital market risk exposure of 12 billion. In 2017, it was estimated that the professors on a 7 billion – it was deeper, because of the minimum interest rate has been reduced. "With these re-allocations of pension funds to move their financing problems in the future. This is irresponsible", writes Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann. Especially since it doesn't look to go as the current low interest rate phase, which lasts already for ten years, would soon end. The example of Japan shows that such a Phase can take as long as 20 years.
The workers do not know, however, how much of your money redistributed to melt. It is only when you retire, you get presented with the bill: to calculate your pension from the occupational Pension, is multiplied by your retirement capital using the conversion rate, and both factors are currently low: The pension capital has grown because of the low interest rates only slowly, and many funds have lowered the conversion rate significantly in recent years. Reason for this is the increase in life expectancy.
the authors of The study assume that in a phase of low interest rates around 20 per cent of the pension capital within a Generation is redistributed: a-employed, which is without a redistribution of 800'000 Swiss francs would have been able to save for his Retirement, only about 640'000 Swiss francs, for example. At a conversion rate of 5.5 percent, he receives a monthly pension of 2933 Swiss francs from the second pillar. He would, however, before the low-interest-rate phase and even with a conversion rate of 6.8 per cent in retirement, he would have to get 4533 francs per month – 1600 Swiss francs.
expert wants. minimum rate of interest
"people have the feeling that they had a secure pension But this safety is only fooled," says Seiler Zimmermann. In its view, the pension should be allowed to cash in risky assets to invest, in order to achieve a return on investment. The Insured should be a part of the risk. Each Insured may choose by yourself, such as risk of its pension capital is to be created: the higher the risk, the higher the Chance that his pension increases but also decreases. "With this move away from the idea of Safety, the redistribution could be limited."
experts agree that a redistribution on the basis of a guarantee as to the minimum interest rate is over a certain amount of time allowed, but, for how long. For Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann each year, given the huge sums of money a year, to much. The pension Fund expert Roger Baumann, however, finds it correct, that the acquisition of a compensatory working is taking place: between those who are good, and those that have experienced poor stock market years. So the risk is smoothed.
There are again winners
The expert Roger Baumann considers, therefore, a minimum interest rate as necessary. In the event of a prolonged period of low interest rates but a Fund should be able to adjust the guarantees, and the employer and the employee should be paid to compensate for more posts. And if the Fund achieved higher returns should compensate the disadvantaged age groups.
Also, according to Hanspeter Konrad, Director of the Swiss pension Fund Association Asip, the insured collective fluctuations to cope with a certain amount of time. Therefore, the age balance of the workforce can be remunerated, in his opinion, also slightly higher than the risk-free rate. The Association had demanded a minimum interest rate of 0.75 instead of 1 percent, to a redistribution to counteract. The Federal Council left him, contrary to the recommendation of its own Commission of experts at the level of 1 percent.
According to the forecasts of Economists, it can take a few more years until interest rates rise again. If you rise one day, then it will be also with the present System, a profit-generation.
Created: 30.12.2018, 23:09 PM