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The period of déconfinement will weigh also on the French growth, according to the Bank of France

the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said on Monday that the period of déconfinement will dampen economic growth in france of at least three points of GDP this year, in addition to the six points already lost when the containment.

read also : The French debt will be "without a doubt" above 115% of GDP by the end of the year, says Gérald Darmanin

"We already know that the act I (the containment general) has cost the French economy almost 6 percentage points of annual GDP, and that the act II might cost in the supplement at least half," said the governor during a speech to the Society of political economy in Paris. "In the longer term, it is difficult to measure the time of return to normal or the 'new normal' and we can expect some losses sustainable growth potential", he added, noting that the BdF does not give its first growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 that the 9 June.

If the déconfinement began on may 11, the resumption of activity is not that progressive in many areas. Others, such as hospitality, the culture or the events remain off. "We must face up to shock and inspire is both supply and demand; temporary and partly persistent; broadly symmetrical but also asymmetrical in some impacts national", he assured.

27% decrease in activity in April

The government table at this point on a fall in GDP of 8% this year. A week after the déconfinement, the Finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, had felt that the economy had restarted "softly". In the first quarter, economic activity in French has undergone a contraction history-5.8%, according to a first estimate published in late April by the national Institute of statistics (Insee).

And far from the rebound in the fanfare of GDP envisaged at the beginning of the crisis, the recovery will be slow and "gradual", has already warned the Insee, even if it has noted an upturn in industry and the building at the end of April. According to the BdF, the country's economic activity has plunged 27% in the month of April, barely better than the fall of the second fortnight of march (-32%). For the month of may, François Villeroy de Galhau had anticipated two weeks ago a fall more moderately, at around -17%.

"Untangle this myth of coin magic"

The government table, to him, at this point on a fall in GDP of 8% this year. On the european plan, the governor has seized the opportunity to recall the independence of the european central Bank (ECB), after a stop controversial of the German constitutional Court. "To implement the mandate which has been entrusted to him democratically by the european legislation, its action is not subject to national governments or to interpretations in the national legal system", he stressed.

François Villeroy de Galhau has also rejected the idea of issuing "perpetual debt" as requested by some member States that want to and do pay the interest payment, also very low at the moment. "It would be best to unravel this myth of currency magic," said the governor. According to him, the perpetual debt would encourage investors to require, "for a debt without hope of repayment risk premiums and therefore interest rates, much more expensive than the current debt".

The editorial team conseilleRécession: why France plunges more than its voisinsPrès two months after the beginning of the health crisis, the French economy barely out of the coma1 comment

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