It was a clear Statement, placed as large in the center of Kiev: "GOODBYE, LENIN! HELLO, EUROPEAN UNION!!!" Full of Exuberance was hung up the poster in the still bloodless Phase at the end of 2013, as many Ukrainians thought that the time of nepotism and corruption, could now, the protests would accelerate the path towards the West. Part one has occurred; six years later, the Ukraine has passed from the former leader of the revolution. But "Hello, European Union"? This way will take much longer, as many Ukrainians had hoped for.
All the major protagonists of the presidential election have made it clear that they have decided to decisive and irreversible for the West course. But the result of the first round of voting is quite sobering, and thus the prospect of a runoff in three weeks. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko , so you have to see it at 16 percent of the votes, is in favour with the majority of Ukrainians in disgrace. The reason is clear: corruption is, as in many Eastern European countries in transition, an omnipresent Evil. The Reform of the judicial system is strongly braked and not nearly so advanced, that the courts of all levels work in a transparent and independent. And the influence of oligarchs is still immense. Many Ukrainians feel left behind because you don't have to look to Poland, namely to see how different the neighbors have developed in the past two decades.
Internal stability as the main task
Poroshenko has a credibility problem. This has made the miraculous rise of the Volodimir Selenski possible in the first place – a comedian, who portrays on TV, a President and, seemingly effortlessly, the conversion of the fiction in the reality of managed. In his fight against the political Establishment Resignation reflected whether the many ills in the country, but also the radical desire of the established leadership to show a way: put an end to corruption, the functioning of the rule of law. Now the Ukrainians have to choose between a President who has lost in comparison to his election five years ago, almost 40 percentage points, and a Comedian, the serious political work must first learn. A lot of distrust against a lot of scepticism – the view could be better to duel for a key.
The Ukraine has experienced a lot in recent years, revolutionary wobble, political intrigue, the Trauma of the conflict in the East of the country and the annexation of the Crimea by Russia. Now you need at least internal stability, which is the order for the winner of the runoff election. Difficult enough, but possible.
The game spaces of Ukraine are closely limited. Security policy, Russia has many means at Hand, to complicate Nato membership, at least significantly. However, whether Ukraine creates more prosperity, less dependent on the security policy rather than of how the country decided on reforms. The EU, with the Ukraine linked by an Association agreement, can be an important support, even if their attraction was bigger.
candidates must change
Will Ukraine move closer to Europe, it needs a clear course towards transparency, the rule of law, independent judiciary. This can be worthwhile. In spite of all the calamities in 2018 and increased the interest of foreign investors in Ukraine. The economy is grown, and the International monetary Fund for loans. The Ukraine is a big, strategically important country; that they could negotiate with the EU a visa-free regime, shows the potential of seeing the Europeans are also in a approach.
For the presidential candidates, this means: Both have to change, if you want to lead the country successfully. Poroshenko is expected to have reveals of the absurd success of the comedic rivals the seriousness of the situation. Selenski, in turn, can tear with their complacency alone the country out of poverty. After all, the Ukraine is very different from other authoritarian States from the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union: It has established a critical civil society. And who on 21. April President of the country, is not identified.
Created: 01.04.2019, 19:51 PM