The endgame has begun. The future of a country, had to often watch foreign powers over his fate. History is repeating itself? For 17 years, the Americans and their allies in Afghanistan but the war they will not win militarily. This realization has prompted the US government to break with a previous principle: that the Afghan peace process should be Afghan-Hand.
trump's special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad was at the Munich security conference is a sought-after conversation partner, even if he held back with public Statements. He has now met several times bilaterally with the Taliban without the Afghan government was allowed to take place at the negotiating table. In addition, Russia is heavily involved in the Afghan peace process, a country with its own Afghanistan-history: The Red army withdrew in front of almost thirty years ago from Afghanistan. In Moscow it has been in the past few weeks, conferences with the participation of the Taliban, also without the Kabul government. Also on Monday, President Ashraf Ghani is not invited, if the Islamists and the US-Topdiplomat Khalilzad, at the invitation of the Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be meeting in Islamabad.
The Afghan government is just a spectator
that Pakistan had used its Connections to the Taliban to convince them to come to the negotiating table, said foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi in the süddeutsche Zeitung on the sidelines of the security conference. "A peaceful, stable Afghanistan is in our interest, and we would benefit from it," he said. His government have no intention whatever, in the internal Affairs of Afghanistan to interfere, ultimately, the Afghans should decide for themselves about their future and the conditions for power-sharing, in which all the Afghan factions, "a piece of cake" to get.
But, as the Afghan national cake is distributed – the Afghan government has no direct say in. Although the US Diplomat Khalilzad has repeatedly stressed that its task is also to an Afghan peace process to prepare. Nevertheless, the Afghan government is so far only a spectator. For it is increasingly clear what Khalilzad for the United States, and should explore with the Taliban and conditions of a withdrawal of the United States, and in return, the Taliban will not guarantee that Afghanistan will again be a refuge for foreign terrorists.
In Munich, at the request of the Americans, was leaked, is of concern to the allies: Khalilzad is to ensure, as we Heard that the Nato partners and other allies of the United States to accept Washington's financial obligations in the Hindu Kush. This would be tantamount to a complete American withdrawal from the longest war in its history, militarily and financially.
What if Trump is planning to go it alone?
Khalilzad is at the beginning of his talks with the Taliban, yet there is no certainty that the interview process is not derailed again. But the Americans end their military Mission ends immediately and the Nato commitment, and to the German application with about 1300 soldiers. Like Germany, all other Nations are dependent on the logistics of the USA. German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to the in Munich surprisingly open: "I really don't want to experience that we all have to stand one day and just go away, because we have, of course, very networked capacities," she said.
the concern of The allies is great that Trump is planning to go it alone, so with the Taliban bilaterally a Deal to negotiate, and Nato-Partner, then a fait accompli. Even worse would be for the Afghan security forces: they depend financially from the USA. It is hard to imagine that other Nato members over their associated financial obligations said to be involved, as massive, as the Americans are doing so far.
of Pakistan has a great in-between destination
In the poker game to the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan for years, the West denounced the key player is now in the spotlight – even if the planned for Monday's conference at the last Minute was cancelled. Islamabad had been dismissed in the fall of the Taliban leader Mullah Baradar from house arrest, and thus, as foreign Minister Qureshi said, the desire of the United States. Baradar wanted peace, he was respected in the ranks of the Taliban. Also, the Islamists realized that they could not govern the whole of Afghanistan, - said Qureshi. His government is trying to convince you to put up not only with the Americans, but also with the Kabul government.
Pakistan has reached with the diplomatic Finesse of a large intermediate target: it is negotiating with about the future in the neighboring country, while the Afghan government only a bystander role. President Ghani emphasized that he trusted Khalilzad as a broker for Afghan interests, but behind their hands, sounds of Kabul Position is somewhat different.
"Khalilzad must not allow other players to take over the process and try to fill the gap, if the US pull off," said a high-ranking Afghan government officials. Only an Afghan-led peace process will bring the country to actually be at peace. "Anything else caused Chaos," said the government official.
Created: 18.02.2019, 17:48 PM