you are currently working at the University of Oxford. How do you experience the mood after the ' no ' to Brexit Treaty?
The people are worried and exhausted from the past two years, ongoing political debate on Brexit.
The people hoard food because they fear that a disorderly exit the EU supply bottlenecks. It is a grotesque, as a war would be forthcoming.
I feel that way also. Here at the University of Oxford, the people are afraid that the research cooperation with the EU is set. This seems to me absurd. The University of Oxford is one of the world's best universities. The universities in the EU, be sure to continue to work together with this University. There are hysterical reactions. But that is because the government to this Situation has been prepared. Now, a disorderly exit is suddenly possible.
Nevertheless, one would assume that the British are accustomed to from their historical experience out of difficult situations.
you are also. By the lower house just says no to exit the contract, there is a substantial risk. Because nobody knows here, what is happening now. I don't think that the Swiss Parliament would have dared to.
"Switzerland is smaller than the UK and has a lower negotiation."
Switzerland has negotiated with the framework agreement signed with the EU, which is hardly a majority. We should not talk to Brussels, finally in clear text?
no, it is very well that Switzerland is playing for time. The EU is currently engaged in Brexit and the European elections in may. Switzerland has an intact relationship with the EU. With the bilateral agreements, and these agreements would not be abrogated immediately, we should reject the framework agreement. In the UK, an exit decision was taken, to great uncertainty. This is a fundamental difference to the Situation of Switzerland.
Actually Switzerland is in a comfortable position.
Yes, leave the EU, is an enormously difficult process. However, Switzerland can afford a rupture with the EU is also less than the UK. We are smaller and have less negotiating. But Switzerland, too, has something to throw in the pan. In the case of the UK it would probably be good if the withdrawal would finally be consummated. It is already clear that there will be such a break again closer to the EU.
But the economic consequences of No-Deal-Brexit would be disastrous.
In the case of an unregulated Brexit it could come in the UK during some quarters of a recession. But the consequences are not comparable with the financial crisis or the Euro crisis. At that time, the whole financial system was in danger.
"We should not expect that the EU gives to the compromise."
Switzerland feared a ' no ' to the framework contract also economic consequences. Right?
We are not going away Yes, we violate no contract, but we do not say that the present contract is good. What that means exactly, we don't know. We Swiss tend to give in before we even know what the EU is doing. We might have to accept that there are higher values for which it is worth to refrain from some quarters, on some economic growth.
But the relentlessness of the EU's irritated already. You would have to those countries that want to escape, or contract to accept, not a little more in the opposite direction?
Yes, but on the other hand, we should not expect that the EU gives to the compromise. In negotiations, it is not the task of the Fittest, to ensure, at the Outset, for the Weaker. The EU also has its legitimate interests, namely, homogeneous regulations in the internal market.
Sometime in this year, the Switzerland, the EU must issue a rejection. What is your scenario?
we Take, in the second half of the year, the EU demands from Switzerland, a decision, and Switzerland says to this framework agreement no. May the EU research cooperation with Switzerland on ice, as they did after the mass immigration initiative. Then Switzerland needs to consider what is your value, and you must create for the research location, a contingency plan for a transitional period. May be a majority in favour of the framework agreement. I doubt.
Is yet another twist is possible?
Normally, this would take two negotiating partners, the attitude that both sides are dependent on each other. It is not excluded also in the case of the UK, the EU again. Therefore, Switzerland should play in the Moment in time. The EU should join with the British to renegotiations, that would be a huge opportunity. Then you could rap with reference to the UK, to talk again about some of the points in the framework agreement.
Ignazio Cassis' loneliness with the framework agreement is not growing
as dramatically as in London, Europe's political Situation in Bern. But just one day after the Brexit-the agreement has failed in the house of Commons, is also in the Federal house, the question is becoming more acute, as the relationship Switzerland-EU. The foreign Minister, Ignazio Cassis (FDP) wants to consolidate the relationships with the institutional framework of the agreement – but recent resolutions of the Federal Council show that the Support for this has not been about Christmas more.
on The contrary, Cassis’ closest European policy companion, Doris Leuthard (CVP), left the Federal Council at the end of the year. And the other Federal councillors showed at the first meeting of the year, little desire to support Cassis in the case of a promotional tour for the framework agreement.
Formally, the Federal Council, to launch a public consultation on the draft Agreement has to be decided. Such hearings are, in fact, to the normality of the Federal policy. However, in this case, almost nothing is normal. The total government to the agreement furthermore, no opinion: Neither supports it nor rejects it officially, now wants to fathom but the detailed opinion of the parties, cantons and associations to the draft.
Without their own Position in the overall Federal Council may, in the absence of a formal consultation process to perform, as would be usual. Instead, you want to make a "hearing of a special kind," says Cassis' Secretary of state, Roberto Balzaretti. This means that they wanted To take with the stakeholders, "seriously, the temperature" and then the conclusions.
In the months of February and March, will meet with Cassis for the purpose of temperature measurement personally in the parliamentary committees and other political actors to high-profile talks. The representatives of the 26 cantons, he wants to invite to a meeting, then representatives of all major parties to a similar meeting. There are three further Meetings with the social partners, the business associations and with representatives of the science to follow.
At each of these Meetings to Cassis by at least one Federal Council colleagues. Such as the "NZZ am Sonntag" reported, would have Cassis actually want to summon, depending on the Meeting a suitable colleague to the social partners, for example, one of the two SP-members that should have the unions more credit as a Liberal.
However, the entire Federal Council has now decided to put it in a different way: Fix accompanied Cassis should be on his talk marathon by the (for the EU-Dossier re also competent) Minister of economy, Guy Parmelin. expand Partially Sukkurs Federal President Ueli Maurer to make. This means that Cassis is in his advocacy for the framework agreement, only two colleagues to the pages, to no such agreement.
Based on the results of the consultation, the Federal Council will have to write at some point but still an opinion for the attention of Brussels. The only question is: when? In December, Cassis had said, the consultation will take up in the spring. Now, the Department of Cassis, this time to expand. The astronomical spring until the 20. June 2019, said Balzaretti representatives of the media – until then, the Federal Council wants to know what he wants to communicate to Brussels.
In the case of the EU-Commission did not want to comment on the recent Federal Berner Volte directly. "We wait procedure on the outcome of the consultation," said a spokeswoman in Brussels yesterday. In some astonishment, circles, joined in the EU, however, Switzerland will be with the consultation now probably only in may or June – so just in the "hot Phase" of the European elections in the EU will be engaged primarily with themselves.
Markus Häfliger and Stephan Israel
Created: 16.01.2019, 22:12 PM