It is one of the clearest defeats suffered by a British government ever in Parliament: On Tuesday evening, 432 members voted against the Brexit Treaty, the Prime Minister, Theresa May with the EU has negotiated, and only 202 voted in favour. With this crushing defeat increases the danger that the British, the European Union on 29. March without an agreement to leave.
May I want to comment on Monday on how to proceed. However, before you can do that, you must survive first, in a vote of censure of the largest opposition party, Labour, to be debated this Wednesday. The government loses this vote, there would be new elections. However, this is considered to be very unlikely, because the conservative rebels who voted against Mays Brexit Treaty, have no interest in new elections and in May would support this vote.
Against the Brexit agreement, only the opposition parties but also by 118 MPs of the ruling Conservatives, as well as the Northern Ireland unionist party DUP, voted on their support, May rely. The rebels miss the so-called Backstop, a catch-all solution that should prevent that ever customs controls between the member of the EU, Ireland and the British Northern Ireland will be necessary. The Brexit enthusiasts fear that this clause will keep their Land permanently in a close relationship with the EU is trapped.
Shortly before the vote, the EU May had assured in a letter that Brussels had no interest in the use of this Backstop, really. But this Letter has not convinced the rebels.
hope for a second vote
you May now try, in Brussels, a stronger guarantee out of the act. You can take advantage of the disastrous result of Tuesday night as evidence that the contract in this Form, no Chance. The EU could then create, for example, a so-called "joint interpretive instrument", a legally binding interpretation for the agreement. To negotiate passages in the actual agreement, excludes Brussels.
The Prime Minister could make the Treaty a second Time to vote and hope that we come closer to the outlet end of the appointment, and the new warranty from Brussels to convince enough members of Parliament. The vast majority of MPs across all parties rejects finally, a Brexit without a contract. Because without agreement, the agreed Transition period would be omitted, in which citizens and businesses until the end of 2020 or even 2022 is not much to change. Instead, customs duties and customs controls were introduced; the economy in the UK and in the EU would massively suffer.
parliamentarians could contribute to the defeat from Tuesday night also even applications with proposals on how it should proceed. Some would call for a new Referendum, some a outlet without a contract, some other Form of Brexit. However, none of these ideas, a majority is in sight. This knowledge could also make it for May be easier to find in the second start-up, a majority for your contract. Has at least the advantage that it provides the only Form of Brexit, which is negotiating with the EU – after a painfully long, tedious conversations.
A Brexit-a postponement until the end of June should not be a Problem
It is possible, however, that May come after this terrible defeat to the result that your contract is actually no chance Then you would have to announce the members of Parliament that they have taken the result to the knowledge and the country well for a outlet, without the agreement preliminary. Since the large majority of parliamentarians want to prevent, could, May resolve to ask alternatively, of Brussels, to move the outlet, so that London has more time, the internal political Blockade. A shift to the end of June should not be a big Problem. While European Parliament elections are in may, but this occurs only at the beginning of July.
granted, the shift, could exclaim May election, or to voluntarily resign, so the Conservative can determine a new party leader and Premier – with a new Brexit policy. To cancel the group, can't force you, because May has just won in December, a vote of confidence in the group. In accordance with the rules of the party it protects the twelve months prior to the new Distrust.
However, it is questionable whether a voluntary resignation would contribute to more clarity. The Conservatives are divided about the Brexit course deeply, and the majority in the Parliament would not change a step. New elections and a possible takeover by the opposition party, Labour would not necessarily lead to a clear, new Brexit course, because the social Democrats are also divided. It's not so far, just because they are in the government. According to opinion polls, Labour is also behind the ruling Tories, in spite of all the Brexit-quarrels. May has promised not to lead the Tories back in to a choice – you would assign, probably before the elections. But surely only the uncertainty. (Editorial Tamedia)
Created: 15.01.2019, 21:36 PM