The anniversary has to be celebrated, even if nobody is in the mood to properly celebrate. The heads of state and government of Nato to demonstrate at the summit in London, harmony. To set the mood there was on Tuesday a four-meeting with the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the German Angela Merkel, the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron, and the host Boris Johnson. On the evening of the reception in Buckingham Palace with the Queen. And on Wednesday, the actual Meeting, a so-called Leaders Meeting is to be held.
In 70 years, the military Alliance has survived many crises and several times to re-invent. But the miss sounds this time could hardly be greater. It is, as there are currently two different Natos. On the one hand, there are those of Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of the military Alliance. Almost desperately, the Norwegian praises at the top of the Alliance is the progress of the last months and years. In this world, Nato is well on the way, because it has adapted to the new dangers. The military Alliance has survived the end of the Cold war as the only military Alliance is unchallenged. In the 90s, the Alliance in the Yugoslavia conflict, and thus for the first time, outside of Nato territory intervened.
The Alliance has the u-turn
as of 2001 launched the war against international terrorism in Afghanistan, and after the Russian annexation of the Crimea in 2014, followed by the return to the territorial defence. The Alliance has launched after years of peace dividend and budget cuts in the member States, the u-turn.
And then there are the Nato of Emmanuel Macron, and Donald Trump. The French President has described the military Alliance as a "brain-dead". And from the US President, we know that he has kept the Alliance is already obsolete. One or both could bring the summit choreography of a mess, feared the diplomats at Nato headquarters in the run-up. Macron is similarly unpredictable, as Trump. The critics talked the success of bad.
Each of the summit planning is futile. It almost seems as if the Nato would make the enemies in the interior to create at least as the dangers of the outside. Nato is your own enemy. In the case of Trump, the Motivation is transparent. He keeps known little of multilateral organisations. The US President is above all a business man. Why should have to pay the Americans for the safety of Europeans?
In the case of Emmanuel Macron is in the Background more complex. Want to strengthen the French President, only the European pillar of Nato, or the old French dream, and Europe from the US decouple? Macron himself said that he wants to Wake up the European people. What if the United States terminate the obligation to provide assistance, as it is in the Nato Treaty article 5 enshrined? The scenario is not entirely unrealistic, should Donald Trump for a second term elected. Otherwise, it seems negligent, as the Europeans leave, still on the American protective shield. Trump has pulled the U.S. forces from Northern Syria, and Macron has experienced on the short message service Twitter.
Similarly, Nato-member Turkey has informed the allies, before President Erdogan in speech with opponents in Russia of its armed forces in violation of international law to Northern Syria. Macron's had enough of coaxing, the crisis beautiful. The Turkey of the movement, with their uncoordinated and aggressive moves against the interests of the Nato partners. It is the poison from the inside, which decomposes the Alliance. The Alliance partners are spared nothing: "Let's first check your own brain-stem death", rejected Erdogan's criticism of the French rustic. Hopefully Macron and Erdogan do not have to sit next to each other. The Job of the Secretary-General is to the Store together and the brawlers to appease. In the case of Trump, it is succeeded Stoltenberg. The Nato Secretary General has convinced him for the time being, that the trend reversal in the burden-sharing and the new billion be used for the defence of his merit.
How long Trumps stops in a good mood, is unclear. The script for the anniversary meeting is in danger.
It is a topsy-turvy world. After Macrons Wake-up call Trump presents itself suddenly as a big Nato Fan, The military Alliance to serve a "great purpose," said the American President at the time of arrival in London, and criticized Macrons brain death-a comparison as "very offensive" and "very, very vicious".
lasts As long as Trumps in a good mood, however, is unclear. Stoltenberg's script for the Anniversary one way or the other is in danger. The Secretary-General wanted to highlight the successes that solidarity with the Eastern Europeans along the Eastern flank of the rotating battalions. The picture is not black and white.
The European allies and Canada have, according to Stoltenberg since 2016 to 130 billion dollars in addition to the defense invested. And nine Alliance members have reached now the target of two percent defence spending in the economy. The Alliance is based on new hazards, such as hybrid warfare, and discovered the space as a future theater of war. However, it is too slow. The turnaround takes too much time. Europe's economy is similar to those of the United States, and yet the Europeans to bear the costs, only 30 percent of the defense. And then the European Nato member States still have 28 national defense policies, a fragmented defense industry, and different security strategies.
The Europeans are divided, where the enemy sits. For the Eastern Europeans to an aggressive Russia is the biggest threat. The Balts and Poland will see the Nato with the USA as the only reliable guarantee of security. France's idea of a decoupling of Europe from America, they consider as an existential danger. For France, the international terrorism, the troubled southern flank are the Problem and Russia's Putin is a potential Partner. Trump will speak at the summit about the military threat posed by China. The Europeans are reluctant and do not want to jeopardize their economic interests. Stoltenberg must be glad when the festivities go without a scandal on the stage. Otherwise you will be primarily in the Kremlin and in Beijing, the joy large.
Created: 03.12.2019, 18:28 PM