May toying with a fourth start-up

Also this 30. In March, the sun was in London, at precisely 5.42 PM local time, as predicted. But otherwise, there was nothing in this Saturday as predicted. At least not as of the own Prime Minister, announced: More than 100 Times, she had stressed in Parliament that this would be the first day in 46 years, the UK will no longer be part of the European Union would be. Now the day is here and the British are still in there. What is for many, however, is worse: no one, not even the Prime Minister Theresa May, the courage yet to the public a forecast, as it is now.

"The confusion in London and Brussels, what is now, the Brexit is at a maximum," says Nicolai von Ondarza of the Foundation for science and politics. On Friday, the British Parliament has rejected the of the own government with the EU negotiated exit contract to a third Time. The Prime Minister May have been trying for months to move everything to the critics in the own Conservative party and coalition partner, the Northern Irish DUP, Yes. She threatens, ensnares, and at last they even offered their resignation in the event that your Deal goes through. But it helped nothing. This time your Plan fell through with 286 to 344 votes. "May's strategy is driven against the wall," says von Ondarza. And now?

"After all, the right direction,"

Who hoped Theresa May would now withdraw, declare new elections, would release and make way for new ideas and concepts, of the disappointed. The opposite is the case. On Saturday, most observers speculated in London, that she was planning a Deal in the coming week, a fourth in the lower house for a vote. The Newspapers the Guardian, Times and Daily Mail came all of them to this result and cited to sources from the government apparatus. A spokesperson pointed out that the rejection in the three polls was getting smaller and smaller, from the initial 230 149 to now 58 votes. His conclusion: "We are moving in the right direction."

What sounds to outsiders absurd, could be wise for Theresa May and her people, once again, a last resort. A last hope, the hard Brexiteers in your party like to see that all the other variants correspond even less to your imagination. As May said on Friday: you ask some members of the Parliament, this Deal is not to agree, although it corresponds to your views – but something like the lesser of two Evils.

This calculus drives May for weeks. New Drohpotenzial you hoped for apparently, on Monday, when the Parliament would similar to in the past week, as well as to explore what alternative way could get a majority. It is a customs Union with the EU, or even a second Referendum on the Brexit have the biggest opportunities. The government May provide under no circumstances behind these claims, because they risked the disintegration of your party. At least 100 MPs, the Conservatives would revolt against such a Plan.

it Comes to stitch choice?

In London it is said: Should be about the customs Union to the vote in Parliament, could May include their Deal as well, and a kind of stitch choice provoke. In the hope that Brexiteers and the DUP to finally fall. If it comes to that? Unclear. And if it's enough, even for a majority, is also unclear, because some Conservatives hold a customs Union is desirable.

While in the case of the EU, many voices claim that a No-Deal scenario is always more likely to be included in London, hardly any more with this terror case. Mays Deal should not get yet, miraculously, a majority, are likely to apply for the British rather longer to postpone the discharge date. Talking about the end of December 2019. According to the assessment of Nicolai of Ondarza this could be "the preferred middle ground", even the EU can agree to. Because then the British would have to participate in the elections to the European Parliament, however, until the end of the year Commission would be except for the choice of the EU not relevant to the decisions in Brussels. The negotiations on the next budget, for example, in 2020 in the decisive Phase.

In the UK, would result in such an extension to new elections. The idea of may's resignation alone solve the node that appears to be deceptive. Because the polarization in the country has been a massive increase in positions between the EU-opponents and EU-friends are hardened to the society. This currently leads to most of the successor candidates in the Conservative rather than hard opponents of the EU, because they see in this Position, greater opportunities in her electorate. But should ascend to the example of Boris Johnson to the Prime Minister and a hard-line pretending to be observers expect the event of the departure of about 20 Conservative of the group, whereby the government would no longer be a majority in the lower house. Also from the new elections would result.

The old British rule does not work

The confusion and machinations lead, in the UK, however, to a loss of confidence in the democratic System. "The Phase in which people see all this as a harmless political Theater is over", tells of Ondarza. The British rule of "the winner takes it all" didn't work at all on the Brexit. As yet there is no of the many Brexit-the way of a majority, which leaves the country at a loss. Compromise and consensus-finding between the positions is provided in the System. And so, the Guardian quoted a member of the government on Friday after the vote on the question of how it is going on now: "All out, the last of the light." (Editorial Tamedia)

Created: 30.03.2019, 16:45 PM