Sir John Curtice is what is called a survey-Pope. For years, he is concerned for the recognized social research Institute NatCen, with the mood in the British population and analyses political developments. He has now published a new survey about how the British judge of the Brexit process – and how the country is split.
just in Time for this Wednesday, as the want to set the house in a series of votes in his Brexit course, he explains what is going on in the country really. Curtice, however, is also so popular because he takes no sheet before the mouth. And his analysis of the current data. According to him, makes Theresa May almost everything wrong.
Theresa May says she fights, unlike the Parliament, the will of the people – namely, the Brexit . The people want to for a or even your Brexit?
There are two reasons why one can doubt your assertion that you know exactly what the will of the population. May argues Yes, your Deal was the Best and only Right one – when voters go to the will of the 52 percent of Leave-so of those who voted in favour of exiting the EU. And most of the but first, in current polls, the majority against their Deal. And secondly, the Figures show that there are now a small advantage of Remain on Leave, so opponents Outlet to outlet supporters. Leaver are, in fact, today, a little less sure than before, that they would again vote as of 2016. And: Many young people under 25 didn't vote at all, they would, however, more likely to vote for remaining in the EU. So you can't assume necessarily that a majority of Britons wants to leave the EU.
May says, 85 percent of the voters had voted in the parliamentary election in 2017 for parties that had the Brexit in your choice of program. Is that true?
This is only true on paper. But it is not true, if one knows the motives, according to which the people really voted. Who has chosen to Labour, has expressed his displeasure about the Brexit; Remain-voters have opted overwhelmingly for Labour. Leaver does not, in turn, have said: Great, Labour has a Brexit in the program. If you were a Leaver, you have chosen to be conservative. Decisive for the choice of decision-making was also, and especially, the attitude to Immigration. Since the major parties were widely spaced.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn argued but always, he had to take on the many Leaver in the party and in the country of consideration.
This is only true to the extent that the 52 percent who voted in 2016 for the exit, came rather from the working class. To the Labour of a strong emotional bond. The reflects but rather the past of the party as their present.
"It is someone who brings together the Extreme needs. And we don't have."
What is all this for the sample of votes to take place today in the lower house called?
at The Moment, it is very difficult to see a majority for a clear compromise, and to say: Okay, we define this compromise, and we gather behind them – at least in terms of public opinion. When it comes to political opinion polls are usually the majority of voters somewhere in the middle. In the Brexit question, we have two extremes: a lot of people at one end who just want to get out quickly. And a lot of people on the other end, want a new Referendum, and, preferably, in the EU remained. The center is sparsely populated. Internal market, customs Union, Norway model – all this is a little less unpopular than Mays Deal. But these are all ideas of the Remainer. And so far there is no solution, the Remainern and Leavern like equally well. Which is why Jeremy Corbyns of talk about the need to finally bring the 52 percent of the Leaver and the 48 percent Remainer together, is very pretty, but I can only say: good luck, man. Very ambitious. This is almost impossible. If you ask people to choose between No-Deal, so an exit without a contract, the Norway model, and a new Referendum, Norway, as the third. Also Mays Deal lands on the third place. So you need someone who brings together the Extreme positions. And we don't have. And we only have a little time.
May is the wrong to sell something, right?
Well, I understand why she does what she does. It holds so stubbornly to your Deal, because that is the only way to keep your party together. In the Moment when she says No Deal, or for a soft Brexit, breaks up the party. It is clear that you can't No-follow Deal, because you should not trust a no-confidence vote in the lower house would lose. Outside the Kingdom, you have to understand: in the Moment, in which May had agreed to request an extension of the Brexit process in Brussels, the operation of the policy of the political opponent. This is dangerous for you. You will seek no soft Brexit, because then the hardliners to overthrow the government.
What would you do?
it is not the most flexible politician. The other Problem is that she has lost the confidence of the lower house. Everyone knows that sometimes you need to be evasive, and that not to do sometimes as a politician, what they say. But she is at a point where she's pushing all of the front of the head. You go to bed, and thinks she will apply for a long shift in Brussels, and wakes up with the message that you want a short shift. She insists that we on 29. Not escape, then we joined on the 29. March. Your credibility is gone. It is also not a good Communicator. What we need now is someone who leads, and of the population feel that the government does not know what she is doing. The Problem is that there is no one who can do it.
"The Referendum cannot be presented simply as the saving way."
Some hard-liners have now announced that they support May, however, at the next vote. Does this change anything?
no. This will not be enough. You still need at least 30 votes from the own camp. The Brexiteers not want May to have a Prime Minister. They believe, as well as the population that has built the Brexit crap.
they say the campaign for the 2. Referendum'm doing wrong, what you can do wrong. Why?
Their Argument always was: The Parliament will not get out the, so we have to give the question to the people back. The campaign for a new referendum was presented as a neutral trial, the basic problem to tackle. But: the second Referendum will be operated by those who say that the people were told a lot of nonsense, it was much to difficult to withdraw from the EU, and the surveys said that the opinion of the people has turned. The message: The misguided population to get a Chance to change their opinion by vote. The Referendum has not been sold by said: Look, the Prime Minister has trouble getting their Deal through the Parliament, we know that the house is full of Remainer. We are so ready to give the Prime Minister a second Chance. Your Deal should go through – but only if the people has the last word. A few weeks ago the "People's Vote"campaign would start, the Brexit Fans to address you on the path to take. The Referendum can be simply as saving way to heal the wounds of the Nation. That May not be flexible enough to go this path myself, to associate your Deal with a referendum, is just another proof of their political inflexibility – and that is exactly what has hurt her so much.
Created: 27.03.2019, 09:10 PM