Before the prime minister of Denmark closed heavily down, warned the national board of Health's director, Søren Brostrøm, that a comprehensive decommissioning could do more harm than good for society.
It appears of a mail Søren Brostrøm sent to key officials in the ministry of Health 1. march - ten days before the decommissioning of Denmark.
In the email points out Søren Brostrøm, that ‘there can be a disadvantageous relationship between the harmful and beneficial effects " by shutting down large parts of the society to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
‘Actions as the restriction of assemblies as well as the closure of businesses, educational institutions and transport links can have significant negative societal and economic effects,’ writes Brostrøm, which at the same time makes it clear that it is doubtful whether the measures will work.
‘That is generally not good documentation for the smitteforebyggende effect of these actions. There seems to be no evidence that the closing of jobs and the extension of the leave may reduce spread of infection and disease burden ifm. Influenza-epidemics.'
See also: do you Have something to hide, Mette?
In the mail beats Søren Brostrøm fixed, that is, before the board of Health will take so intrusive methods in use.
‘As there may be a disadvantageous relationship between the harmful and beneficial effects, there will therefore be a high threshold for that, the Board will recommend the comprehensive approach as indicated. However, selected parts can have its place. In this connection it may be considered, though there may be less intrusive measures that can be promoted politically,' writes Søren Brostrøm.
examples of possible actions he mentions an extension of the easter holidays and an invitation and support to businesses and educational institutions can offer homework and study.
Read the entire Søren Brostrøms mail here:
1. march 2020: the Email from Søren Brostrøm (PDF)
1. march 2020: the Email from Søren Brostrøm (Text)
According to the former director of the Danish Health and medicines authority, Else Smith, Søren Brostrøms mail a warning to the government not to insist too hard.
- He says that if one moves further out, so as to become evidence much thinner. And since we do not know the health effect, one can fear a very negative economic and social effect, says Else Smith, who calls Brostrøms assessment ‘the right’.
- the Cure must not be worse than what you are trying to treat. It is a good principle, she says.
She backed up by professor in health economics Kjeld Møller Pedersen University of Southern denmark. He believes that Søren Brostrøms mail provides the prelude to and basis for the shutdown in a new light.
- What we see here, that not have been clear before, is that there actually was a reflection on the harmful and beneficial effects, says Kjeld Møller Pedersen.
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the Decommissioning of Denmark included, among other things, day-care centres. Photo: Jonas Olufson
Sundhedsprofessoren call it ‘thought-provoking’, to Søren Brostrøm already 1. march brought the reflection on the negative consequences could be greater than the gains on the track.
- Which he says precisely that there are advantages and disadvantages to it, and that it is not certain that the relationship is so unique. It is relatively strong words in this context. It was not something we heard about when the prime minister closed down 11. march. It is interesting that the medical authority says, that one must look at it.
Kjeld Møller Pedersen believes that Søren Brostrøms mail pointing in the same direction as those documents, Jyllands-Posten brought forward in the last week, which showed that the health authorities - at least up to 10. march - not recommended the extensive decommissioning of Denmark, which was decided the day after.
- They add to the image of, that there has not been any advice that says: now Close the whole of Denmark down, he says.
After the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten hedging has several parties demanded the matter fully investigated.
Community - 21. may. 2020 - pm. 20:48 Brostrøms papers casts doubt on Mette Frederiksen explanation
11. march presented the prime minister Mette Frederiksen a comprehensive shutdown in the country.
At the time was 514 danes infected with the coronavirus. The number increased by over 200 per day. A few days before the shutdown was the number of infected 35.
:Send pupils and students in all educational institutions hjemLukker cultural institutions, libraries, leisure facilities etc.Send all the government employees who do not perform critical functions, hjemOpfordrer all private employers to ensure that as many people as possible are working from home, afspadserer or bear vacation.Close all schools and dagtilbudBegrænser the use of collective trafikBegrænser nursing home and hospitalsbesøgForbyder assemblies of over 100 persons indoor
Subsequently, forsamlingsforbuddet sharpened, and also chose to close all the malls as well as restaurants, pubs and hairdressers.
Good hand hygiene, håndsprit in public rumOpfordre to bike over tightly packed metro, buses and S-train fx cykelUndgå public transport in myldretidArbejde home, if it is possible, especially at the symptoms of luftvejsinfektionTilbyde vulnerable staff homework or orlovForlænge holidays and weekends Changed mødekultur on arbejdspladserOpfordrer to buy groceries nettetBegrænsning of visits to nursing homes and hospitals and the greater the distance in venteværelserSårbare groups need to consider to cancel social events with many participants
does not Mention:Closure of schools, day care centers, education, cultural institutions or repatriation of public servants Show more Close
Also Jakob Kjellberg, a professor at The National Research and analysis centre for Welfare and health (Ram), read Søren Brostrøms mail as a warning that harm may be greater than the positive effects.
- He says, that the Danish Health and medicines authority has difficult to recommend something, where the evidence is weak, and where the harm is great. It is the grundlogikken in all the health sciences: What is the impact and what is the side effect? Here he seems, that one can consider the less intrusive approaches, where the secondary consequences are less, says Jakob Kjellberg.
Søren Brostrøms mail confirming him, that the decision on the massive shutdown is not done on the recommendation from the Danish Health and medicines authority.
- It is fairly clear that here, at least not at that time support from the Danish Health and medicines authority - and certainly not a recommendation - to shut so violently down, as there was, he says.
Else, Smith believes that Søren Brostrøms mail is an attempt to make it clear that a comprehensive decommissioning of Denmark can be risky and give more losses than gains.
- He goes the into the controversy and says that here one must think really, really good about. We have no evidence that there is something smitteforebyggende in such violent actions. On the other hand, one must then, in turn, fear the costs on many other levels. You win nothing, but you pay a high price, she says.
Søren Brostrøms mail was sent 10 days before Denmark was closed down. In the days leading up to the closure, increased the number of infected danes significantly with over 200 on the day. Else Smith doubtful, however, that there may be something happened in the days leading up to that has changed Brostrøms views on the matter.
- No, I don't believe it. I think, more and more, he has been increasingly squeezed. There has always been the here, the battle between the medical and the political. What we also see here, she says.
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Else Smith, former director of the national board of Health, read Brostrøms mail as a warning. Photo: POLFOTO
the former director of The Danish Health and medicines authority calls for a thorough investigation of the decision to close the 11. march.
- We will, as citizens would like to know if it is a politician who has decided it. Everyone thinks it's medical, but it is not, she says and elaborates:
- It should be transparent. We would like to know on the basis of what, these decisions are taken. It is a personal anxiety? And then you have the power to do something. Or is it because some wise and knowledgeable people have said it?.
Neither Søren Brostrøm, or the national board of Health wants to inform further action in the matter. Ekstra Bladet has, among others, asked whether the committee recommended the extensive decommissioning of Denmark before 11. march, and on Søren Brostrøm changed position on the issue.
the Committee refers to the assessment of risk from 10. march, in which the extensive decommissioning is not apparent.