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Lukashenko is against Union with Russia

Shortly before a Meeting with Kremlin chief of Vladimir Putin of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has tried to Provide to disperse a political Union of the two countries. "If someone is not afraid, that tomorrow will be a joint Parliament formed: that is," he said yesterday. "We are going to join us, never any other state, not even the brotherly Russia." He will not give up the independent, sovereign state, which he had built together with the white Russian population, - said Lukashenko. On Saturday, Lukashenko and Putin in Sochi, Russia, would like to arrange a more in-depth Integration. The Prime Ministers of both countries have been working for months to 31 individual chapters, the Details are not yet known.

The Russian newspaper "Kommersant" reported in September that both countries seek an economic Alliance to 2022. Therefore, belong to the negotiation of a uniform tax system, a common system of civil law, a foreign trade regime and the regulation of the energy market points. Since the Russian economy is large, almost 30 times as the white Russian, that would be imbalance in such a Union major: Minsk had to adjust to many of the points and about the Russian tax system.

Union Treaty of 1999

In Belarus has increased, therefore, the fear that Lukashenko may yield to the stronger pressure from Moscow and a political Union with Russia involved. 20 years ago, Russia had argued that at the time of Boris Yeltsin, and Russia know a Treaty on a Union state was signed, which provides for, among other things, a common currency, national symbols, a Council of Ministers and a joint Parliament. With a life that has not been filled yet, however. The relationship has deteriorated rather. Since Russia has annexed the Crimea, Lukashenko is gone at a distance. The annexation, he did not recognise that the dispute over energy supplies has increased, while Minsk has improved the relationship with the European Union. Most of the sanctions are lifted.

However, Moscow has found a new way, to put pressure on Minsk to exercise. The so-called Russian tax maneuver: Moscow has begun this year to lower the export customs duties for Oil and Gas, and instead, the promotion to tax. It shifts the cost to the customer, for example, in white Russia. Minsk, however, has to get accustomed to Russian Oil and Gas cheap and duty free. Because it pays significantly more, Lukashenko has compensation of Moscow demanded. The Kremlin uses this lever: A compensation, he wants to pay only for more Integration of the old Union Treaty of 1999 provides for. Putin, Lukashenko, faced with the choice between more money or more of their sovereignty.

A Union state, as unlikely as it is, will be discussed in Moscow against the Background that Putin's ends last term in 2024, and he is not allowed to stand again. A new state structure could solve the Problem.

But it would be risky – not only because a Union can be expensive for Moscow could. You are expected to bring in Putin, no popularity points: According to a survey conducted by the public opinion research Institute VTsIOM, 48 percent of Russians consider a Union with Belarus to be unnecessary and prefer to good neighbourly relations.

Created: 05.12.2019, 20:48 PM

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