What has surprised you in the elections in Lucerne and in Basel area more: that the left-green forces, or the SVP such crashing?
Both of these election results have not really a surprise character. Clearly came on Sunday that the SP must not let any springs, although the Green to grow massively. The Thesis is: on the left is mobilising well and is attractive for Neuwählende. A part of the Gains of the SP out of this attractiveness is lost, but probably to the Green. The Green benefit of New and swing voters from the SP and reinforced ticket-splitting, as well as indirectly from the demobilization in the ranks of the SVP.
In Zurich, but has lost the SP in the polls easily.
Yes, but the SP has been achieved in view of the landslide shifts to the Green and green liberal party Zurich-a comparatively good result. In Basel and in Lucerne she was able to grow well despite green gains even. Under the dash on the left of result slip. That's what I expect for the national elections in the autumn. However, the losses of the SVP are likely to be less strong than now in the cantons, and the left-green forces are likely to win less.
participation in national elections is usually significantly higher than in the case of cantonal elections. The meaning is the voters seem to clear. Days timeliness and the editorial media can mobilize less one-sided, because all the forces are mobilized. It is, therefore, more likely to mobilize relatively to the other. Since the organizational power of the parties plays a bigger role. Important is the ability to put national issues and to play cantonal effective, for example, with actions, while campaigning door-to-door or on the phone. Here are the three largest parties, SVP, FDP and SP are set up currently is best.
The interference of Christoph Blocher shows that it could go back to the hard opposition style Zurich embossing.
What makes the SVP is currently wrong?
The SVP has to work hard to mobilize their base. This is due not least to the fact that you, after years of hard Opposition to the new government now has two representatives in the Federal Council. She can't do it so well, to rekindle with their supporters, the opposition fire. Their defeat in the enforcement initiative has demonstrated that clearly.
What must the party do?
Now would be a thematic Opening a Option in the direction of the smart neo-conservatism. So the idea of a lean state, for example, with the digitization of clubs. The intervention of Doyen Christoph Blocher in the leadership of the Zurich SVP shows that it is more likely to go back to the tough opposition, the style of the Zurich embossing. With this orientation, but it is difficult to find new layers of voters to involve in the Canton of Zurich is moving rapidly in the direction of the New Economy. Since the "tractor technology" somehow out of place.
The SVP and the FDP currently behave completely differently. The SVP is not a Iota different from their Position in the climate policy. Is that wise?
Each party has wide population flows. The base of the SVP is close to nature, but clearly anti-green. There's a hard opposition course against the new ideas, because that has made the SVP also in other subjects, for example, in the formation, successfully. The latest Tweets from Roger Köppel against the climate youth seem to illustrate the harder line.
The FDP, however, reviewed its environmental and climate policy.
As a society, modern liberal people's party, the FDP is responding correctly to the needs of the urban newcomer, especially in Zurich. The digitization is a world closely linked to the desire for sustainability in the environment. That, for example, Ruedi makes Noser as an IT contractor for the Opening of the FDP for a liberal environmental policy, fits very well into the picture.
Can prevent the bourgeois forces, the left slip?
there is A realistic Chance you have, should the issues of economic change to their favor, for example, if the Migration is more and more in the focus. The not but. The climate and the environment are at the top of the worry barometer of the population as far as for over ten years. Not by chance: The climate change in the everyday lives of the Swiss are increasingly felt, the summer for summer, Winter for Winter.
of Course, the climate youth movement, populist contains tables of the elements. However, it is your right to receive with skillful Wording and more attention.
What is the role of the media?
The media have noticed that the climate issue is picking up strongly. Online, the topic was already long in the air, editors have treated it the same, relatively neglected. Now, however, there has been a chain of events – keywords: heat of the summer, the failure of the CO2 law in the national Council, the Greta, which has catapulted the climate issue into the public consciousness.
to Accompany the media, the so-called green wave-critical enough?
To find out, it would take an in-depth analysis. I think it is legitimate for the media to bring an up to now rather neglected topic on the Agenda. In a next Phase, but it is certainly important to come to a critical discussion. What are the limitations of green politics? These are exciting questions, which will answer the media. I have a great deal of trust.
SVP-politicians are complaining that the climate change will be abused for scaremongering, terms like climate state of emergency to be populist.
of Course, the media must also of the claims of centre-left populist elements of search and critical to the point. However, there is nothing to package the findings of the science of climate change in terms of what the understanding of the population.
If the SVP calls the asylum a state of emergency, it is called immediately: excessive, pure populism.
of Course, contains the climate youth movement, populist elements. However, it is your right to get a skillful Wording more attention for your topic. Populism, however, has other facets, such as the rejection of the separation of powers, a vehement rejection of the elites.
in the autumn When the green forces win, that will change the Swiss climate policy for a long time.
The youth climate protesters demand a "system change", if Switzerland reduces its CO2 emissions by 2030 to zero. This is radically.
Who will prevail in the movement – whether Fundamentalists or realists – is still unclear. At the Moment, I take the movement is still quite moderate.
How long can continue this so-called 'green wave'?
The climate issue will not simply disappear from the debate. It is a classic Bottom-up movement. There are in the population, a growing willingness, the Problem with government intervention to address.
New Eco-taxes or bans could embitter the population, the desire for climate protection.
It takes a long time to build a law. Even more difficult, but it is to underline that a law, if it is there in the first place. In the autumn when the green forces win, that will change the Swiss climate policy for a long time.
How likely is that a strong counter-movement arises, the new governmental commandments and the prohibitions go too far?
This is at least in the longer term, is quite possible. Up in the fall, I expect no major shifts in the voter preferences.
Created: 01.04.2019, 13:44 PM