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Karin Bojs: When the ice hockey player hit with force

We can set the date to 23 april 1998. Then published Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, an article in Nature, with a reconstruction of the climate in the northern hemisphere in the last 600 years.

Or we can take the 15 march 1999. Then the same published author, an expanded version in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, climate of the northern hemisphere in the last 1000 years.

But all does not read the Nature and Geophysical Research Letters. Therefore, I would set the date to January 22, 2001. Presented at the UN's climate panel, the IPCC, their summary: TAKE Climate Change : The Scientific Basis.

Prior to that date, it was reasonable to say, ”I do not know.” The judgment of history will be harsh upon all who persisted in opposition after January 2001.

the third major compilation from the IPCC (which started 13 years earlier by, among others, the Swedish, the meteorologist Bert Bolin). In the year 2001 the intergovernmental panel on climate change for the first time that the world actually is getting warmer, and that it is to a large part is due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

the Report had an impact in the world as the two previous IPCC reports had not been received – thanks to a picture that was in the summary. Namely, the Mann, Bradley and Hughes graph from 1999. Ice hockey player. Data from the annual rings of trees, corals, and historical sources, and for the last century from thermometers. A child can see how the curve suddenly turns stuprätt up. Just as the blade of a hockey stick.

more clearly, climate change is not illustrated.

Both the image and the three authors personally was ran unprecedented in the history of science.

that was legitimate to question, as some inaccuracies in the source material that was later corrected by the authors. But in the big moves stand out ice hockey player just fine, purely scientific. The conclusions have been strengthened and the picture is even more alarming today, as we are situated on just over 1 degree global increase since the 1800s, compared with the 0.6 degrees that the first ice hockey player showed.

do a quick googling on the internet can, however, get a different impression. Online get practitioners still spread out with incorrect facts.

If the world had listened more on the IPCC and scientists like Michael Mann back in 2001, and less on the desinformatörerna, would challenge for our times, young people have been very much smaller.

IN the IPCC's 2001 report, there were also a number of scenarios about the development that then could be expected for the coming century. The most optimistic scenario, called B1, and implies that warming stops at approximately 2 degrees by the year 2100. Other scenarios pointed towards 3 or 4 degrees as the most likely outcome.

featured , Glen Peters at the research institute Cicero in Norway a comparison of how real-world emissions compared to the IPCC scenarios, both those from 2001 and those that are more modern.

Glen Peters comparison shows that we currently are far away from the Parisavtalets goal of a maximum of 1.5 degrees. If we continue as so far the world is rather on the way to 3 degrees by the year 2100.

We had been able to mjukbromsa 18 years ago. But we did not do, despite the fact that science was, including the clear picture on the hockeykurvan.

Therefore, we must nödbromsa now.

Link to the graphics
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