International security : The German debate on the INF Treaty is a reality

just in Time for the Munich security conference in Germany a small retrofit debate. Russia, since the USA and its Nato-allies for sure, has violated the INF Treaty, i.e. the Treaty between the United States and Russia, says the stationing of medium-range missiles to the country. At the beginning of February Donald Trump is a part of the unsuccessful Conciliation of the Germans terminated the contract – what Angela Merkel criticized him at the Munich security conference. The decision should not "lead to blind Upgrade," said the Chancellor.

But in the upgrade of the German policy are now discussed. The CDU, for example, in the form of the Vice-chairmen Johann David Wadephul, is more for conventional retrofitting and warns of a new German betrayal of the partners. The SPD is against it. However, as useful as the debate for the party-political profiling may be – it still misses the realities. The idea of a bipolar world, with a few missiles more-or-less a balance of power can be produced is obsolete. The Cold war is not coming back.

That so many wish it to be like, is almost understandable. The binary idea of the "equality of Arms" is beautifully simple. It organizes the chaotic world in the image of a Dare: There are two shells, which are in Balance, if in two equal. In the 70s and 80s, there were rockets, in order to know whether it is safe. The same number of missiles, all the same. On this balance idea is also the major disarmament treaties such as the INF-based contract. You can't have, what I have done in the world is peace.

The peace of nuclear disarmament treaties will not be denied. To make the Russian violation of the INF Treaty, however, the core of the security debate, it would be equally wrong. Since 1989, have developed many other forms of threat, so many that the deployment of acts of nuclear equippable Russian SSC-8-missiles almost as just one Problem among many. To try damage the big powers-Russia, China and the United States, in trade, in economy, Innovation and Information.

It is mostly a matter of weakening the "opponent" or to satellite chosen countries technologically, economically, or ideologically, or to conquer – not real. Markets and elections are much faster than weapons systems. To prevent possible harm to the EU, Russia does not need to invade the Baltic States. In order to make smaller Asian countries are subject to, do not need China to attack you atomic.

The world is a complex System, not binary

The globally networked world is characterised by interdependencies and feedback effects. It is a complex System, not a binary. Trade wars can quickly pair to the own economic and political majorities change. Markets can be much faster moving than weapons you can use to develop, quickly, new alliances can emerge. Also in the race for innovations, there is no binary answers. Protectionism may work in the long term, but the development of ideas, from which you could benefit, inhibit.

at the same time the "war" of the infrastructure transferred to the heads. Russian cyber-mercenaries have captured e-mails of the National Committee of US-Democrats, but the real goal of the national Psyche of the United States. It comes to columns of companies, or to manipulate elections. Security experts ask whether the Russian SSC-8 Rockets, part of an attack on the heads are – with the goal that the United States and Europe argue, and societies like the German, can be split in a retrofit debate.

"The Cold war is over," wrote Maas

foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Minister of defence Ursula von der Leyen seem to be ready to explain the bipolar era of the Weapons balance. "The Cold war is over," wrote Maas on the occasion of the security conference in an article for the "Security Times". The "tit-for-not more, indeed," of the eighties, operating said von der Leyen. For Nato granted Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg of atomic armament, a clear rejection. The Tenor is, rather, Nato is not arrived yet in the new way of Thinking. But we are moving out, strategies for the hybrid warfare of the 21st century. To develop century.

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That this way of Thinking is spreading, slowly, the feeling in Munich. All this does not speak against it, thinking about it, what conventional weapons of a potential danger by nuclear Russian medium-range missiles could be tackled. But this should not, alone, raise the claim to the term "strategy". Real security can only come about if trade policy, the protection of their own democracy before Splitting, a clever innovation policy, strong alliances, and classic arms are brought into a coherent overall strategy.