On the Saturday of the passing of the 60-day deadline set by the United States against Russia, in order to save the INF Treaty on the prohibition of land-based nuclear medium-range missiles in Europe. If no miracle happens, this epoch-making disarmament Treaty in history – and it begins a new era.
the INF Dies, also the chances are bleak, to extend from 2021, the New Start Treaty, the nuclear Intercontinental ballistic missiles is limited. But without a contractual framework for the nuclear disarmament in the United States and Russia, the ban on the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the world (non-proliferation, NPT) does not hold. Nonproliferation is inseparable from the disarmament and control of readiness of the two nuclear powers. The two are gearing up, will do smaller powers, because they believe, to make itself unassailable. North Korea, Iran are only the first examples. The atomic arms race was in full swing.
The EU would have had to fight for the continued existence of the contract
the first and so far the world's only real disarmament Treaty that led to the destruction of all existing nuclear missiles, medium in East and West Europe, it value would have been to fight, to visible to him. To mobilize all diplomatic resources, special summit of the EU heads of state and heads of government to convene and to be daily between the main cities in Europe, in Russia and in Moscow on the way to prevent the beginning of a new nuclear arms race in Europe, that would have been displayed.
No doubt about it: The prospects of success of the possible efforts are manageable. To the United States and Russia want to get rid of all of the bonds in the development of nuclear weapons because both countries see as the real competitors, not with each other, but in nuclear power, China. That's about it.
China was the end of the 80s, not on the international Radar of nuclear disarmament negotiations and is included in any of the existing international treaties on arms limitation and disarmament. Today's nuclear weapons potential that includes wide-wide Share precisely the middle Kingdom, are prohibited for the United States and Russia in accordance with the INF Treaty. So much for the United States and Russia publicly criticize the alleged or actual nuclear Treaty violations – in truth, you have to upgrade to the same Plan: in respect of China atomic.
is A re nuclear armament in Europe, from their point of view only to accept collateral damage.
Germany and Europe have to do with two nuclear super-powers, for the Europe of secondary importance. Within Europe, especially the Eastern European EU and Nato do not see the countries with the worry that because you believe in it or at least doubt, that Western Europe – in particular the Germans and the French for their freedom, ready to die. Exactly but the content of the defence commitment in article 5 of the Nato Treaty, and since these countries prefer to focus on the USA. It should go actually to the stationing of atomic missiles, medium-Europe route, will follow these countries to the call of the US, whereas in Germany and other Parts of Western Europe, probably massive political struggles and government crises were triggered.
the debate over The INF Treaty carries with it a massive explosive device for the European Union, which could quickly bring all the dreams of a common European Foreign and security policy, to Burst. In Nato, you could get a taste of it. There, Nato Secretary-General stood behind U.S. President Donald Trump and made the allegation, only Russia has violated the INF Treaty. It is also available in the documents of the Nato countries – also in Germany – a significant question mark behind some of the statement from the US secret service circles. The last meeting of the Nato-Russia Council at the 25. January has brought no rapprochement. In Nato at the Moment for arms control advocate, is not very promising. Too great was the fear of upsetting Trump even more and to convey his willingness to move away from Nato.
The true enemy is the nuclear power in China
What options remain to us still, to stop at least the current automatism and to win time for negotiations? First of all, the debate within the EU must begin. It is so far to the side line, because it is not formally a negotiation partner, and the US President in front of his decisions, not even the members of Nato informed – let alone the EU. You must bring yourself into the game. Because of the historical reasons to doubt the Eastern Europeans to the standby arrangements of the West, the first step must be to take on significantly more responsibility for the military security of these countries. Say: to kidney and more European and thus German conventional forces in Eastern Europe. This strengthening of the defense capability in Eastern Europe must be accompanied from the beginning by dialogue and negotiations on arms control and disarmament between Europe and Russia – and even in the nuclear field. At the beginning of the arms control. Invitations to the peer Review of the military capabilities and developments could help to create trust. This is the prerequisite for arms limitation and disarmament. Russia has offered to open up its arsenals, at least verbally, of course, in return, insight into the American demands.
as for the INF, is the Review of the Russian weapons system SSC-8 (9M729), of course, is absolutely urgent. The inspections have found until 2001, the recognition of both the U.S. and Russia. A revitalization of the so-called Special Verification Commission would be the right way. The Problem: A consent of the Russians without reverse permission to inspect the U.S. systems, it is difficult to imagine. To the interest of the United States in the liberation of any nuclear arms limitation is to focus on the new strategic challenge of China. Russia and Europe are from this point of view, of secondary importance. Nevertheless, Europe must and must urge Germany, in particular, within Nato and with the US clearly and unmistakably. And a conditioned approval of Moscow for verification would be a hope of making progress.
Whether Russia is ready to agree on Arms control with Europe in the nuclear field, are not likely to depend on the willingness of France and Britain, in turn, also armor checks. But who wants such as France, that Europe is also in the security and defence policy independent of the USA, must be willing to go to such steps.
The goal must be to come back again a reliable European security architecture, which exists at least since the invasion of Russia in the Crimea and the civil war in Eastern Ukraine. This conflict urgently needs to be at least pacified. Key to this is a UN blue helmet mission, the ceasefire and heavy weapons from Eastern Ukraine is bringing out. Germany's security Council since January of 2019, a member of the UN. This blue helmet mission could be his paramount task.
a new atomic betting Is about to equip? No one wants a Revolver to the headHans Month
Sigmar Gabriel, SPD Chairman and several Federal Ministers and is the author of the daily mirror.