Hard to see the end of the brexitprocessen

"Hard to see the end of the brexitprocessen"

"Brexitprocessen marked since the autumn of abrupt changes. What it will stop is difficult to determine, even for the experts."

"TT a closer look at the three crucial questions in the immediate future."

"Will the Uk leave the EU?"

"It is highly likely that it will be so. The only question is when and how, according to the experts."

"– the Situation is more uncertain than ever, " says lawyer Mattias Hedwall, commercial expert at law firm Baker McKenzie."

"He excludes neither a british crash out of the EU without the agreement or that it ends with the opposite, that the british cancel the whole brexitprocessen and stays in the EU."

"– though I have pretty hard to see that you would be able to do the kovändningen on the british side. There are still strong forces to leave the EUROPEAN union, in the parliament and in the population. And as long as there is a referendum results that go on will be hard to go against it, " says Hedwall on the latter option."

"Catherine Barnard, professor of EUROPEAN law at Cambridge University, at the same time expects that Theresa May get through his contentious utträdesavtal to the end – despite the fact that the large majority ratats of the british house of commons twice. She sees two votes in the house of commons in front of him and expect a breakthrough first in the fourth vote, whereupon the contract can be converted into a british utträdeslag."

"– the Risk that the Uk will not leave the EU only if it will be a very long extension of time until brexit, " she says."

"Göran von Sydow, acting director at Swedish institute for european policy studies (Sieps), experience it as the process leading up to a crucial brexitbeslut in the Uk is coming to an end, and he sees an EU-exit, as a main scenario."

"If it does not become a utträdesavtal it is – despite the decision by the british house of commons decided to say' no 'to exit without a contract – possible that the brits crashing out of the EUROPEAN union without a contract," he says."

"He emphasizes at the same time that it is difficult to give any clear answer to the question -"

"– We don't know if there will be a new folkomöstning or if there are new elections. But it also requires quite a lot to the decision on the brexit to be changed."

"Should Theresa May resign?"

"It is soon time for it, according to experts. But not quite yet."

"– There are many reasons for Theresa May to resign, but the fact is that there are no obvious alternative leaders, " says Catherine Barnard."

"She sees it as possible that May bake into a promise to resign when a utträdesavtal is in place sometime in may. This is to attract more hard-line so-called brexitörer within their own party to support it utträdesavtal she has negotiated with the EU."

"– Then it will be a fierce battle for who will be the next leader over the summer and so appointed a new leader at the Tory convention in October, " says Barnard."

"Göran von Sydow feel like Barnard that May in spite of all the setbacks is sitting pretty secure right now, because there are no alternatives, but also since she in december passed a vote of no confidence in the party and then also has survived a confidence vote in the house of commons."

"– Then it is clear that one can reflect on why she did not voluntarily leave, " he says."

"Mattias Hedwall judge Mays position that is quite threatened, though nor did he see how it would benefit brexitprocessen if she leaves right now."

"– but she leaves enough of its own accord on application for EU withdrawal be revoked, " he says."

"the Future is highly uncertain and everything can, in principle, still happen. The experts are far from unanimous about what is the most likely scenario."

"it is Clear that the debate in the british house of commons continues. And most likely it will be a decision that the Uk should submit a request to brexitdagen on march 29 is postponed, which is assumed to be taken up for decision at an EU summit scheduled for next week."

"the Experts expect that this will be granted, if it be accompanied by a reasonable justification."

"Catherine Barnard think Theresa May ahead of a european summit will try to increase the pressure by sometime next week to let parliament in London say no to the existing utträdesavtalet a third time."

"– the following Week, after receiving förläningen granted by the EU, yet a vote that she will probably win, " she says."

"She looks like the other experts at this moment a far deadline for the british EU-exit in the end of June, when the new parliament sworn in on 2 July. Would the withdrawal be made later than this need to the british holding of elections to the EUROPEAN parliament."

" I think we at the latest before mid-year will to know if there will be a structured exit from the EU or whether the Uk will choose to remain. I don't think they can pull out of it anymore, " says Mattias Hedwall."

"He adds that he, despite the decision in the house of commons if, on the contrary earlier in the week, see a british crash out of the EU without a utträdesavtal as a likely scenario."

"– It is still in my world a 50% chance that it will be a hard brexit, even if the house of commons yesterday voted in favour of the Uk should not leave without a contract, said Hedwall."

"– Then it becomes a hard brexit with some form of commitment from the EU to open negotiations on the future of the relationship directly, " he adds."

"Göran von Sydow can at the same time imagine that it is already in the cards can be pressure for a significantly more protracted brexitprocess, when Theresa May will try to use this scenario to get the more hard-line brexitörer of his party on his contentious utträdesavtal."

"He adds that the situation is difficult to predict, when, for internal reasons, there is no indication at all on the blocköverskridande coordination in the Uk."

"– That is the british political culture that characterize this. It is in their electoral system two-party system, that it is always a fierce conflict between the government and the opposition. In addition, you now have a weak government, " says von Sydow."