Ebola-shock in the Congo-the choice: 1.2 million will not get the vote before the president is sworn in

today, an unknown proportion of the Congo 40 million voters to the polls in Africa's second largest country.

Even after congolese default is the prelude chaotic:

Saturday night rejected the two leading opposisjonskandidatene a covenant of peace proposed by the electoral commission to avoid violence after the election.Due to the violence, an ebola outbreak and security situation has electoral commission postponed the elections in three strong opposisjonsområder to march next year.The choice should really have been held for a week ago, but was postponed at the last moment.- Extremely high voldspotensiale

According to a velgerundersøkelse from the Congo Research Group (CRG) at New York University, then the selection is not the parademarsjen for the regime's candidate as many have believed.

the Survey is based on two different polls.

- If the election is free and fair, it is almost certain that a opposisjonskandidat win the election, called it in the survey.

According to the CRG is opposisjonskandidaten Martin Fayulu an to 47 percent of the vote, ahead of Felix Tshisekedi with 23 per cent. First on the third place comes the regime's husband Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, with 19 per cent.

if everything Goes well, can the choice be the first democratic regimeskiftet in the war-torn african country since independence in 1960.

SORT OPTIONS: It has created a lot of anger that the election in the town of Beni in Congo is deferred until after the scheduled presidential inauguration in January, because of an ebola outbreak. Here conducts the residents of the city a pretend-choice Sunday, 30. December. Photo: NTB Scanpix/AP/Al-hadji Kudra Maliro Show more

There is no reason to take for granted.

the Potential for violence is extremely high, it is called in the CRGs survey.

- Obviously, electoral fraud

the Researchers write that an average of 48 percent answered meningsmålerne that they "almost certainly and/or probably" would participate in the protests against a "fixed" options.

even before the polling stations opened this morning, there were good reasons to fear just that: In the three districts, which, according to the british "the Guardian" is opposisjonsbastioner, has the electoral commission postponed the election to march next year.

This means, according to the BBC that almost 1.3 million votes will not count, because the president should be taken in the ed already in January.

the BBC writes that this framkalt violence and anger.

Thus, it seems likely that it breaks out protests when the election is over.

FAVORITE: According to a survey made by the Congo Research Group (CRG) at New York University is one of the presidentkandidate Martin Fayulu an to win today's election in the Congo. It sounds he vote in the Congo's capital Kinshasa. Photo: NTB Scanpix/AP/Jerome Delay View more

It's going to be electoral fraud, it is quite obvious. The question is rather how critical it is, " says NUPI researcher Morten Bøås to the Newspaper.

- Have the most resources

Even keeps Bøås a button on the regime's men, this voyage he wrote hand-picked Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.

- Most likely to win the regime's man, because he has the most resources.

Bøås points out that it is only a valgomgang. Thus, the election can be won with less than half of the votes.

Gets the winner's margin of 10 per cent, do not believe Bøås that electoral fraud will get some great importance - and the opposite if the margins are small. In this case, it is the regime's man Shadary that are best positioned.

- There is no doubt that the regime has the greatest opportunities to cheat.

The 18 candidates outside favorittsjiktet of the three has meager chances to be president, but makes it all the easier for the regime to play divide and conquer effect.

- Cunning and cynical

The last outgoing president Joseph united states, according to Morten Bøås been accomplished, from the time he took over after his father Laurent, was assassinated in 2001.

- There have been some political violence, but far away from the brutality that we have seen in other rulers. He had to learn to tread the water very fast and become a cunning and cynical maktpolitiker. If not, he would die, and perhaps the rest of his family also.

That the united states goes by now, two years on overtime, due to the fact that the constitution does not permit that he be re-elected.

no Matter who wins, there are some things that will not change, think Morten Bøås.

Everyone in the political elite are on a level or another involved in corruption, " says Bøås.

the Problem is that it is an extremely skewed distribution. The elites have very largely enriched themselves.

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