Dan Lucas: the Shift in the housing market – all the more believe in rising prices

During the month of may has some news that points to a stabilization of the housing market.

In the last week, Svensk Mäklarstatistik price development for april. And for the first time in over two years, there was not a single minus sign in any of the regions they measure, whether for the month of april or for longer periods, like three - and a twelve-month basis.

so the major banks have SEB its bostadsprisindikator, which measures what households think about housing prices. The entire 49 per cent believe in rising prices over the next price, a rise of five percentage points since april. Only 22 percent believe in falling prices, which is a decline of four percentage points.

the Bank has also changed the perception of housing prices and writes in a newsletter that they ”no longer expect any further decline.”

it can be noted that the Fiscal council - which reviews the government's fiscal policy - in the last week-called the concern for households ' excessive debt for ”excessive”.

you can declare the crisis over? Is the crisis over for this time?

the Answer is no, it cannot.

of the expensive condominiums in the major cities, especially in the Stockholm region. In order to sell them have bostadsbyggarna forced to make big discounts and it is seen when they present their reports.

On Wednesday, there was the SSM's tour. Residential builder made a profit on the actual movement of 12.4 million for the first quarter, compared with a profit of eur 34.7 for the corresponding period of the previous year. Cash flow is still negative – in simple terms, streams more money out of the company than coming in.

SSM's ceo Mattias Roos, finds himself in his comment that the market for new condominiums, ”remains pending.”

And like branschkollegan, Oscar Properties has SSM a large bond issues that will need to be renegotiated. The loan matures in march next year and the SSM evaluates different options regarding the loan refinancing.”

the renegotiation to a much more expensive loans, which since has been followed by an offer to bondholders to convert their holdings into new shares. This means that the existing shareholders ' power in the company will reduce the

SSM seeks to address the sluggish market to build rental properties – almost half of their projects are just rental apartments. But the company has also set a target that 70 per cent of the condominiums they build should be able to be sold for a price below two million. In the Stockholm region must be seen as a lågprissatsning.

It is often the case that the debate about the housing market is about prices and household indebtedness. But there is another crisis that is much worse: a growing group of people has been increasingly difficult to at all get into the housing market in the more expensive resorts. It also applies to hyresrättsmarknaden.

It is, however, fundamentally a political failure as the SSM or other builders do not learn to be able to do much about.