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Chaos before the brexit vote: So wrong it can go

In two years, Britain's political future has been completely and utterly chaotic. And now tips it even more.

In the course of the next 18 days, the british namely conclusively to decide whether - and how - they should leave the EU.

Already in the morning on Tuesday is decidedly nøgledag, since the English parliament has to vote on Theresa May's revised proposal for a roadmap for Brexit, which shall be no later 29. march.

Theresa May has since the referendum in the Uk to leave the EU negotiated with the EU on an appropriate agreement, but it is in no way succeed.

The agreement she had negotiated, was voted down with a resounding 'no' by a vote in parliament.

It came to the vote 15. January, where it was voted down with a big majority and it is the same agreement she has negotiated further on. If not she has got something home with me in the negotiations, so it is the same text.

- the EU has so far very firmly refused to reopen the agreement itself, because they say that it is the best one can achieve. There is no way around. But, as you say, is that, perhaps, you can discuss to reach a supplementary agreement, where you say something more legally binding about it here questions about the backstop with the irish and northern irish border, says associate professor at CBS Ole Helmersen, specialising in modern british politics.

It means 'backstop-the problem'

One of the points that creates the greatest dissension about a possible brexit-agreement, is the so-called irish backstop, as the EU requires.

it deals with The question of whether there should be a hard boundary between the republic of Ireland, which remains part of the EU, and northern Ireland, which is part of the Uk.

There was signed a peace treaty, in the light of the conflict in northern Ireland. The peace agreement was based, among other things, that there was an open border between the two pieces of Ireland', so to speak.

- It has been an important precondition for the peace agreement could be reached, and has held virtually ever since. It is a complete red line for the united kingdom, you will not do anything that would in any way bring the status of the border in danger.

The same limit is, however, is the problem for the EU, which can't live with, that there is an open border between the two countries.

- Very central, the EU is a customs union. It will say that you have no internal customs border, but it has an external customs border. It has, in order to protect the internal market, which is absolutely fundamental for the EU.

- Therefore, the EU has insisted that there must be here a backstop mechanism, which will enter into force by the end of 2020, if the agreement is adopted. If the EU ensures it, so there is a risk that goods that are imported from the rest of the world to the Uk, they can seep into the EU without control, says Ole Helmersen.

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it Becomes yet another 'no' to the Mays revised plan on Tuesday, so parliament will vote again on Wednesday. Here to vote on whether Britain should leave the EU without an agreement.

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Graphics: Jesper Nielsen

- This is the roadmap they have laid. If you vote no Tuesday, then the Wednesday vote on whether they want to exclude 'No-deal' as an option. If they do, then they have to apply for an extension of the deadline, so they can't reach to do anything.

- Everything can of course be done, if the political will is there, but 29. march is good enough close to gradually, says Ole Helmersen.

the Vote to extend the deadline will, where appropriate, take place Thursday and must then be approved by all 27 EU countries.

In the run-up to the first vote on Tuesday, there is great doubt whether it is meaningful to vote for Theresa May's appointment again. Monday night wing Theresa May to the emergency meeting in Strasbourg with president of the EU commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

- Unless Theresa May come home with one or another kind of miracle, and to the EU in one way or another has bent on it here in northern Ireland-issue, then I can almost guarantee that it will be voted down again.

- I don't believe in it. I do not think that the EU come up with something, which is so miraculous, that it will convince Mays opponents and skeptics at home. So, I think quietly, you can count on it to be voted down, says Ole Helmersen.

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Theresa May, flew Monday evening to Strasbourg to negotiate on the agreement in the last moment. Photo: Mark Duffy/AP

It can therefore risking to end in three days with polls, and it is not certain that a consensus is reached.

- If scenarios, which is organized with the three votes succeed, then everything is open again. We are out in 'chaos plus plus'.

- It may end with the resignation of the government, if there are ministers who leave the government. So it may end with the parliamentary elections and change of government. It can also end in a new referendum, as there is more and more, that speaks for. It could be an opportunity to have broken it here dødevande, says Ole Helmersen.

Extra Magazine follows the Brexit close and covers the vote in the british parliament live on Tuesday afternoon.

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