The fat years seem to be over. This is the conclusion of a joint report of the chambers of industry and Commerce of Berlin, Cottbus, East Brandenburg and Potsdam, which have asked their members to the expectations and Wishes.
How bad the prospects are, really?
The short answer is: by growing. The business of the companies in Berlin and Brandenburg run good. In both countries, the companies assess their situation now is worse than in previous years. Although the proportion of the confident-minded companies (27 percent) was greater than that of the pessimistic tuned (12 percent), the report said. However, this ratio was significantly worse than in the advance polls.
The IHK business climate index for both provinces reduced to four points on the 134 meter. "After the indicator has already lost in the autumn of a point, marks the second decline in a row now, the end of an unusually stable growth and high cyclical phase, in which the economy of the Region since the beginning of the year 2015 was", - stated in the report. And further: "in The economic summer is not finished, but it is the characters that it might go contrary to the autumn."
However,: Until it is really frosty, is likely to take time. Of these, in any case, Berlin's economy Senator Ramona Pop is – and refers to the statistics. "Berlin's economy is growing well above the national average. For 2019, we expect to see currently, a growth of 2.3 percent,“ says the Green party politician. "This shows a stable development, which must now be consolidated." However, The risks for a dip in the growth rate to rise, Pop, and refers to the Brexit and the U.S. trade dispute as reasons for a possible downturn. To follow is likely to have the economic downturn for the labour market. Many companies in the Region plan compared to the fall is less rapid build-up of staff, stated in the chamber of Commerce and industry report.
How big is the importance of the world's economy?
Great. To be able to good economies, companies need one thing: political stability. Order it is ordered but currently bad. No matter whether Britain's upcoming EU wars exit or Trade, the US President Donald Trump with China – for the companies in the Region, there is reason enough for concern. "In the export shops in Berlin and Brandenburg, the momentum has slowed significantly," says therefore, Marcus the Great, the chief Executive of the IHK Cottbus. The accounts undertakings to increase the least of which is turnover in the export business, is likely to be in the coming months, and harder, he supposed.
especially the approaching Brexit to the company, because with it new bureaucratic hurdles are threatening. The Berlin chamber expects that alone to the capital every year, 500,000 of securities must be completed and customs controls. "The Brexit currently employs, especially the small businesses," says Mario Tobias, head of the chamber of Commerce and industry in Potsdam. "Currently, each small screw and the seal is checked for its origin."
Are there regional problems?
Many. Because it's not just Donald Trump and Theresa May prepare the company to Worry about the economic and political course in the homeland is critically followed. Jan Eder announced three sites for the policy: "The public investments must finally be on the way, the housing is accelerated and the procurement law more attractive."
the Reform of The public procurement is required by the company for a Long time. Example housing industry: If the state rubs works exclusive, companies need to struggle through lengthy procedures and the application process. The consequences.
The chamber of Commerce and industry report found that seven out of ten companies are already participating at all in public tenders, because the procedures are too complicated.
"especially the foreign lending criteria and not always in line with the market prices of contracts in the public sector make it unattractive", says the report of the chambers. An example is called Jan Eder: "Who is helped, if there is a children's Playground will not be built, because the male workers influenced the construction companies must first submit a funding plan?", he asks – and says it rhetorically.
Also, the Berlin Senate is not escaped, that he has a bureaucracy problem. He expresses it clearly distinguished. The structure and content of the law to be "user-friendly", promised the Senate in may in a key issues paper. Economy Senator Pop promised on Tuesday to re improvement. "In the future, engage in business less bureaucratic in public tenders. For this value boundaries, for example, are standardized, and existing barriers removed.“
What is the role of the mood?
That the economy is 50 percent psychology, to have the economic miracle-Minister and later Chancellor Ludwig Erhard knew. And the chambers of the Region know it. The deterioration in growth expectations, not least because of the bad mood between politics and the economy, believes Jan Eder. Especially in Berlin, companies are missing currently is a clear commitment to a social market economy.
Eder is referring to the increasingly loud demands in the Senate to expropriate private real estate companies such as Vonovia or the Deutsche Wohnen.More about
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For Eder is such a debate, however, is taboo: "thoughts of gadgetry to the nationalization of private property damage, the location, and that a state-run economy does not work economically, is likely to have proven in the past is sufficient." Senator Pop showed on Tuesday also sought to lift the mood. All players are asked to make efforts, to investment as a stimulus to bring the driver forward and to develop new capacities. "This is also about Berlin as a business of coaxing location bad. Investors have strong confidence in our business location. Together, we must work to ensure that it remains so.“